On an average day in New York City, about 145 people die. It’s a little higher in March: In 2017 and 2016 (the most recent years for which we have data), the March averages were 151 and 159 per day, respectively. In April, it was 146 and 149 per day in 2017 and 2016, according to state Department of Health data.
About one month ago, the city’s first coronavirus death was recorded. Since then (as of 5 p.m. Monday), 2,738 people have died of the virus in New York City. That’s an average of 109.52 per day from the coronavirus alone.
We can expect noncoronavirus deaths to be a bit lower over the past month, but still: These 110 deaths per day will significantly add to the daily death total in the city.
The first five days of April saw 1,000 people die of the coronavirus alone in New York City. That’s more than 208 per day, which is far higher than the normal per-day deaths there from all causes combined. Don’t forget — people will still keep dying from heart attacks, violence, and other causes even amid the pandemic, so a lot of these deaths come on top of what we would have gotten otherwise.
That’s why New York City has to set up mobile morgues. “Funeral homes are becoming backed up,” the New York Times reported. “And, running on smaller staffs, cemeteries and crematories are scrambling to keep up with demand.”
Again, there will be some offsetting reductions in deaths. Traffic deaths will have been lower over the past month because of people staying at home. Flu deaths are probably down. Then, there’s a sort of morbid accounting that suggests deaths from respiratory failure and diabetes will be lower than normal later this year because COVID-19 is currently eliminating those most vulnerable.
By the way, Nicole Gelinas flagged this data on Twitter — it’s worth having a look yourself.
Years from now, anyone looking at New York City death statistics will see per-population death rates in NYC steadily falling for more than a decade until 2020, when they will see a significant spike (hopefully just one year!) in the death rate.
