Parliament does not get to decide on its own whether the United Kingdom crashes out of the European Union with no deal at the end of this month. The EU’s 27 other member states have a say as well. They are discussing Britain’s request for an extension to its withdrawal date. Most members want to grant an extension, but France is far less sympathetic.
Even though he opposes an extension, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was forced by an act of Parliament to ask for one — the result of his losing a key parliamentary vote earlier this week. But French President Emmanuel Macron is fed up. Britain’s continuing inability to sort Brexit out is affecting Macron’s ability to get the EU focused on his priority: reform.
The French leader, who has the power to block a Brexit extension in the European Council if he chooses (unanimous support from the 27 member states is required), wants the EU to embrace greater cooperative action on issues including security, climate change, and political integration. The constant hassle over Brexit prevents the effective discussion of those issues.
Macron also fears that even if the EU grants an extension to Brexit, it won’t change the fundamental situation. Parliament is now split between those who want Brexit on any terms, those who want Brexit on a narrow set of terms related to an agreement with the EU, and those who want to cancel Brexit entirely. When votes are put to the House of Commons floor, no majority can be found for any one of these options. And Johnson’s opponents, trailing him by more than 20 points in some polls, are scared to death of the election that would be required to sort things out. Although polling also shows the British public overwhelmingly wants an election, the left-wing opposition has been working and voting to prevent it.
The question, then, is whether Macron will budge over the next few days. I suspect that he will.
Macron faces his own escalating pressure from EU figures who are concerned with France’s continued breach of EU fiscal rules. France’s budget deficit remains stubbornly high and Macron’s government has been reluctant, for fear of renewed protests, to take greater action to bring it down. That gives the EU leverage to bring France into alignment and approve what most of the EU hopes will be an extension that ultimately makes Brexit more unlikely.
