Joe Biden stumbled through the first three Democratic primaries. Now, he is looking to regain his footing in South Carolina. But will a win in South Carolina be enough to revive his campaign?
If his polling holds, there’s a good chance South Carolina will be Biden’s first win. He’s at 31.1%, according to FiveThirtyEight, and he’s more than 11 percentage points ahead of the runner-up, Bernie Sanders, according to the RealClearPolitics average. However, it’s important not to underestimate Sanders’s ability to close that gap. He has three strong victories behind him, and nationally he’s way ahead of the other candidates. More importantly, Sanders doesn’t have to win to beat expectations.
Still, South Carolina is a big opportunity for Biden, and his campaign knows it. The problem is that his team has been treating South Carolina like the destination rather than a pit stop.
Super Tuesday is next week, but Biden is woefully unprepared. He’s invested few resources in key states such as California, and he hasn’t made much of an effort to connect with voters, either. In Arkansas, for example, Democratic voters are beginning to wonder if Biden is taking their votes for granted.
“Arkansas was, in my opinion, going to be a default Biden state,” said Michael John Gray, the chairman of the Democratic Party of Arkansas. “He hasn’t been here. Of all the campaigns, the least organized in Arkansas is Biden.”
Biden rolled out a six-figure advertisement plan in the Super Tuesday states this week, which is very little in context. His spending pales in comparison to Sanders’s $13.5 million worth of airtime in all 14 of the Super Tuesday states. Amy Klobuchar, Pete Buttigieg, and Elizabeth Warren have more than tripled Biden’s Super Tuesday spending as well. And that doesn’t include Michael Bloomberg or Tom Steyer, the two self-funded billionaires, who are pouring tens of millions of dollars into advertisements.
Unless something changes, Biden’s Super Tuesday performance will likely be a repeat of his Iowa and New Hampshire busts. A win in South Carolina could soften that blow, but it won’t stop it.
