Political journalists and commentators always put too much emphasis on policy and ideology. Often, that’s the only way they know how to speak about politics. But it leads us to misunderstanding the political landscape.
In the current Democratic presidential race, the main misperception is that there are two “lanes”: a centrist lane and a progressive lane. This leads analysts to assume that if Elizabeth Warren drops out, her supporters go to Bernie Sanders because both are on the Left. The policy-ideology framing also leads to analyses such as these:
The three major center/left candidates so far (Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden): 53%
Sanders/Warren: 36%
But, the first group’s failure to consolidate is the best thing going for Bernie Sanders.
— Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) February 12, 2020
But regular voters aren’t as policy-focused and as ideological as we Beltway denizens assume. Identity politics and class allegiance often matter much more than Medicare policy.
Michael Brendan Dougherty described the media error well:
That policy matters more than class social identity; when in fact it doesn’t. I assume moderate Joe Biden’s voters are more likely to go to Sanders and “lefty” Warren supporters more likely to go to Buttigieg. https://t.co/aapmO4muyM
— Michael Brendan Dougherty (@michaelbd) February 12, 2020
Look at the numbers, and you’ll see it’s true.
According to New Hampshire exit polls, among union households, the top two candidates were Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders. Warren bombed among those with no college degree (6%), whereas Sanders dominated in that group.
Go back to when Warren was the front-runner in Iowa: She was dominating among the college-educated crowd. She lost Iowa because that crowd moved to Pete Buttigieg.
About half of Warren’s Iowa supporters this year were Hillary Clinton supporters four years ago, suggesting that what they like is white baby boomer women. Early New Hampshire numbers suggest Warren lost a lot of support to Amy Klobuchar, the most centrist of the remaining candidates, but also a white woman.
So if Biden drops out, much of his working-class support will go to Sanders. If Warren quits, her college-educated supporters will go to Buttigieg and Klobuchar. The lanes aren’t ideological.
In D.C., people find their meaning and their identity in their policy views. Regular voters find it somewhere else.
