Republicans have been scraping for signs that talk of a blue wave washing away their congressional majorities in November is overhyped. A new poll may offer some mild reassurance.
A Washington Post-ABC News survey of 1,002 adults conducted by phone earlier this month found more voters prefer their Democratic House candidate to their Republican one, but by a decreasing margin. From the Post’s write-up:
The poll found President Trump’s approval rating to be 40 percent, up 4 points from January. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Perhaps most interestingly, the survey seemed to find no enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans, with “68 percent of both Republican-leaning and Democratic-leaning registered voters say they are certain they will vote.”
“This contrasts with Post-ABC polling ahead of the 2010 and 2014 midterm cycles, when Republicans averaged a double-digit advantage in intentions to vote. Democrats suffered major losses in both years,” the report noted.
An enthusiasm gap is really the key to victory for Democrats. Observers have posited that dampened support for Trump among some Republican voters, combined with sharp opposition to him among Democratic leaners, could create problems for the GOP. Given the electoral evidence suggesting such a gap has emerged in at least some states, positive polling numbers won’t entirely ease Republican anxieties.
This survey probably serves best as a reminder that the midterms are still more than half a year away and the national mood can fluctuate quickly.
