The coronavirus crisis has turned everyone into an amateur statistician overnight. We know about “flattening the curve,” exponential growth (of increasing infections and deaths), and models projecting potential outcomes of the pandemic. Headlines will alternately tout studies projecting a massive overwhelming of our healthcare system absent severe lockdown for months and others that estimate deaths from COVID-19 in the tens of thousands, but not millions, if we stick with the ongoing lockdowns.

If you’re left feeling confused about whether we’re headed in the right direction, whatever that means these days, you’re not alone. With the coronavirus crisis, we hear predictions day in and day out that sometimes seem at odds with one another. It might make you think the experts don’t know what they’re talking about. After all, we all want someone to tell us confidently what is going to happen so we can plan our lives.