Despite the media’s overwhelming focus on the actions of a few bad apples in President Trump’s orbit, Republicans are entering the run-up to the November midterms with a strong record of achievement that resonates with voters.
The Republican majorities in Congress have worked closely with Trump, despite a difference in styles and temperament, to advance smart policies that have created economic growth and opportunity. You could be forgiven for not knowing that based on the overwhelmingly negative coverage of the president, but his list of accomplishments tells a different story.
Trump has delivered on promises to cut taxes and regulations. In the 19 months since moving into the White House, Trump’s unique brand of politics has delivered robust economic growth to the amazement of many of his critics. The Dow Jones reached a new record high on Thursday, GDP gained 4.2 percent in the second quarter, and unemployment is near a 50-year low. The latest job numbers show employers added 201,000 jobs in August and wages continue to grow faster than inflation. Confidence in the economy and the job market is soaring. Some 3.9 million more people have gone back to work under Trump.
The president has also set a record for appointing conservative federal judges. Some 60 judges have been confirmed to the federal bench by the Senate. Perhaps more importantly, many of those judges are in their 40s and will have an impact on the direction of the courts for decades.
Senate Republicans have been an active and crucial partner in the president’s success. Thanks to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell’s ability to outmaneuver Democrats in the final year of the previous administration, Trump had key vacancies on the federal bench to fill, including a Supreme Court seat. Equally important, McConnell has moved swiftly to advance Trump’s nominees through the Senate process and to the floor for a vote.
With Republicans in control of the presidency and both chambers of Congress, businesses and the Americans who run and work for them have benefited from tax reform, deregulation and other pro-growth policies. More than 500 companies have announced bonuses, pay raises, increases to retirement contributions, and other improved benefits for their employees this year, according to Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, who announced in July that the “tax cuts’ positive results for the American people are here.”
The historic tax cuts, long the goal of congressional Republicans, were only possible because of the growing working relationship between Trump and GOP control of the House and Senate. Not a single Democrat voted for the tax cuts, and House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, who would likely be in charge of the House if Democrats are able to retake the chamber in November, called them “unpatriotic.”
Yet despite Pelosi’s declaration, voter confidence in the economy and the job market is soaring, and satisfaction with the overall direction of the country continues to hover near highs not seen since 2006.
Enthusiasm among Republicans is one of the most important, underappreciated components of predicting how well GOP candidates will do in November. Democrats are, unsurprisingly, less than thrilled with Trump’s success at rolling back the bushel of burdensome regulations saddled on the economy by the previous administration. Anger (more akin to disillusionment) is less potent at motivating voters to mobilize than hope.
The pending confirmation of Judge Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court is a crucial moment for conservatives, as is the possibility that Trump could get to fill a third Supreme Court seat in the next six years. Conservatives’ confidence has also been buoyed by gains on national security issues, including strengthening the military, tightening border controls, and moving the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem.
Democrats also risk overplaying their hand. Evidence of this already exists in the results of recent primaries where far-left candidates won over more established candidates with better chances of winning the general election. This tendency to overcorrect by Democrats and continue to ignore working-class voters gives Republicans an opportunity to hold seats they might otherwise have lost.
Another positive indicator for Republicans is the steady stream of small-dollar donations flowing into the GOP war chest, while the Democratic National Committee continues to rely on an $80 million pledge from Michael Bloomberg. As a measure of enthusiasm among actual voters, small-dollar donations matter.
All of this is reason for Republicans to be optimistic going into the final sprint to Election Day. But midterms can be tricky, and low turnout can foil the best-laid plans of candidates and their consultants. For some candidates, that will mean locking arms with the president, who remains popular in Florida, Arizona, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Utah, Nevada, and North Carolina. Others will need to establish their own identities and narratives to connect with voters.
Democrats want to make the midterms a referendum on the president, whose overall popularity remains surprisingly steady at around 41 percent – though it’s 84 percent among Republicans. But the truth is that the tenure, and therefore the impact, of many members of Congress far outlasts that of a single president.
Trump’s tenure in office has been a productive period for Republicans. They may have the occasional disagreement over style, but the president has championed traditional GOP priorities like cutting taxes and improving national security. The past year and a half have shown that congressional Republicans and the president need each other and that voters need them working together.
Dan K. Eberhart is CEO of Canary, LLC, the largest independent oilfield services company in the United States.
