It’s no secret that President Trump’s ongoing trade war with China has had economic consequences for key parts of his base. Although mid-term elections tend to focus on domestic issues, and this year is no exception, these areas hardest hit by the trade war are also a test of faith in Republican leadership to bring the promised better deal with China.
With few exceptions, Republicans in Congress have done little to truly stand up to Trump on his trade policy. After all, when it comes to the tariffs that Trump has implemented, he has done it through loopholes in current law, which Congress has the power to change.
That means that for all of their stated opposition to Trump’s policy, congressional Republicans have largely gone along with Trump’s position, securing bailouts for key constituents along the way.
For his part, Trump has made an effort to paint a rosy picture of progress toward the promised better deal with Beijing ahead of the election.
On Thursday, he said on Twitter that he had had a “long and very good conversation” with Chinese President Xi Jinping on trade. He told reporters at the White House, “We’ve had very good discussions with China,” adding, “We’re getting much closer to doing something. They very much want to make a deal.”
Just had a long and very good conversation with President Xi Jinping of China. We talked about many subjects, with a heavy emphasis on Trade. Those discussions are moving along nicely with meetings being scheduled at the G-20 in Argentina. Also had good discussion on North Korea!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) November 1, 2018
A deal, however, remains a distant prospect. Negotiations have stalled as Trump has threatened more tariffs, this time affecting every Chinese good shipped to the U.S., if talks with Xi are not satisfactory at the G20 Summit in Argentina this month.
The U.S. also passed up an opportunity to foster goodwill by sending a delegation to a major Chinese trade show, headlined by Xi in Shanghai, that promotes Beijing’s interest in foreign products including those produced in the U.S. and championed by Trump.
Perhaps Trump has succeeded in drumming up enough scaremongering about migrants headed toward the U.S. border to keep the trade war fight out of the main driving force behind votes. Perhaps not — eroding profits and lost business are deeply motivating.
Republican leadership isn’t entirely convinced that Trump’s favorite topic is the best way to drum up last minute support. On Sunday, House Speaker Paul Ryan made a weekend attempt to get the president to stoke up GOP voters with talk of the booming economy, a far better way to sooth trade war fears, rather than immigration.
The strength of Trump’s rhetoric on trade and how credible voters find his promised deal-making will be born on Tuesday, either with continued support granting the White House a new mandate for its tough talk and high-pressure deals or a rebuke of policies that have brought economic pain.
That show of confidence, or not, will shape how opposition to tariffs among typically pro-free trade Republicans plays out, either strengthening their position or giving added legitimacy to Trump’s tactics.
The trade war quagmire, far from over, is instead set to become increasingly painful. Although seemingly off the radar of most national conversations on midterms, its economic pain will increasingly be at the forefront in months to come especially if no deal is reached at the G20 summit. That will make it a consequential issue on 2020 and one with serious repercussions.
