The prolonged shutdown of large parts of the U.S. economy over the coronavirus has caused real pain that has understandably led many people to urge the swift reopening of businesses. Just this past week, there were 6.6 million jobless claims — about 10 times the number at the peak of the Great Recession. But those pushing for getting back to normal should recognize that as long as the coronavirus remains a threat, there will be no way to avoid economic disruption, regardless of government policies.
It is true that a lockdown-based strategy is not sustainable for the country over the long haul. The nation’s leaders must lay the groundwork now for a gradual return to American life once the worst of the crisis is over. Such a strategy will likely involve more widespread wearing of masks and a better system for testing people, isolating those infected, and then notifying all of their contacts. Hopefully, at some point soon, there will be a medical breakthrough that could at least treat COVID-19, even if a vaccine is unlikely to be available before the second half of 2021.
But right now, cases are still rapidly increasing, and public health officials have not yet developed the tools needed to mitigate the spread of the virus outside of the current aggressive measures. Under the circumstances, it was prudent for President Trump to extend the current guidance on social distancing through April.
Critics of the current mitigation strategy have made some fair points. One of the most compelling is that any calculation about the possible negative effects of easing up on restrictions needs to be counterbalanced against the societal risks associated with a prolonged shutdown that devastates businesses, makes it impossible for millions to earn a living, and causes social isolation.
Yet regardless of what state and local ordinances say, the nation is well past the point at which it could just go back to normal, economically, in the absence of a longer-term strategy for fighting the coronavirus.
Coronavirus cases are now skyrocketing, and deaths are beginning to pile up. The death toll is already in the thousands and will certainly reach tens of thousands — according to estimates provided by Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx, it will likely breach the hundreds of thousands before long.
In that context, large businesses simply aren’t going to want to risk sending employees on corporate trips. Families, especially those that include senior citizens, are not going to be planning vacations.
With a dangerous virus spreading, how many people are going to want to return to bars? To eat out at restaurants? To crowd movie theaters? To stay at hotels?
Even before governments began issuing restrictions, these businesses had been hurt by reports about the disease. Demand will not suddenly pick up while the United States is still in the dramatic growth phase of the infection, and the medical systems of several cities are on the brink of being overrun.
The month of April will be a painful period in American history that will hit businesses and workers particularly hard in industries that are based on human interaction. But unfortunately, there is no shortcut back to normalcy.
