President Joe Biden’s poll numbers are weakening.
While most people agree that it was past time to end the war in Afghanistan, a new NBC News poll shows that only 25% approve of his handling of the current situation. A CBS News survey finds that 74% believe the removal of U.S. troops from the war-torn country has gone badly.
Biden’s current job rating, based on the average of the four most recent national polls, is 45% approve and 51% disapprove. That’s down from two weeks ago when my LunchtimePolitics.com website had his average rating at 50% approve and 47% disapprove.
In addition to job performance, polls are finding that people feel more negatively than positively toward the president personally. The latest USA Today poll has his unfavorable rating hitting 56%, including 64% of independents. The survey also finds that Biden’s troubles are hurting the Democratic Party, rated by voters at 33% favorable and 56% unfavorable. The Republican Party, which rates a little better, comes in at 37% favorable and 49% unfavorable.
But what effect will fallout from the Afghanistan situation have on Biden’s ambitious agenda now moving through Congress?
His initiatives include the $3.5 trillion budget bill, loaded with costly new programs and entitlements, and the bipartisan infrastructure bill that has already passed the Senate, with its $550 billion in new public works spending,
The $3.5 trillion bill has always been a heavy lift, and it’s still shy of enough votes to pass. The infrastructure bill, on the other hand, has attracted Republican support and is an easier sell. That said, it may be held hostage in the House by progressive Democrats who want Congress to approve the bigger budget bill first.
In addition, the Biden administration needs to raise the nation’s debt ceiling at some point. This is one of those pesky chores Congress is occasionally asked to do to keep the government’s borrowing capacity afloat. So, what happens next?
The conventional view is that a weakened Biden will have a tougher time getting what he wants from Congress. This assumption is based on the idea that centrist House and Senate Democrats, especially those with difficult reelections, will back away from his agenda. It’s also believed that Republicans will be less inclined to support any of Biden’s proposals, making it harder to build bipartisan coalitions.
Even before the fall of Kabul, Speaker Nancy Pelosi was having trouble keeping House Democrats together. The 96-member Progressive Caucus is willing to risk the infrastructure bill, if needed, to force passage of the $3.5 trillion bill. That puts them at odds with the nine House centrists who want to pass the infrastructure bill regardless of what happens to the other bill. With a slim House majority, Democrats have little room for error. According to this viewpoint, Biden’s latest foreign policy troubles will make it harder for Democrats to overcome preexisting stumbling blocks in Congress.
But there is another point of view: It holds that Biden’s weakening will, paradoxically, help pass his agenda because Democrats now have a reason to “circle the wagons” and protect his presidency. Both the White House and Democrats in Congress desperately want to switch subjects from Afghanistan to domestic legislative victories.
Before Afghanistan captured public attention, the argument made by House and Senate leaders to pass Biden’s agenda was: “Let’s stick with our Democratic president and pass his entire progressive agenda.” Now their argument, at least behind the scenes, will be more urgent: “Let’s save our Democratic president.”
This may be a compelling message for Democrats, including centrists who have doubts about multitrillion-dollar spending plans, but who don’t want to bring down the Biden presidency. The big question continues to be what two key Democratic senators will do, Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona. They’re both skeptical of the $3.5 trillion budget package. Either can sink the bill, so getting their support is essential.
As Democrats regroup, their path forward will not only shape critical public policies but the rest of the Biden presidency. The stakes are high.
Ron Faucheux is a writer, pollster, and nonpartisan political analyst. He publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a newsletter on polls.
