Virginia Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin has narrowed what should have been an easy race for Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe into a dead heat, according to recent polls. This is great news for Republicans, who must turn their 2020 suburban losses around if they hope to gain ground in 2022 and 2024.
A new survey released by Monmouth University on Wednesday shows Youngkin has made massive gains among both independents and women over the past month — the two groups that former president Donald Trump lost in the 2020 presidential election. Now Youngkin and McAuliffe are tied, with both candidates raking in 46% of support among Virginia voters.
Youngkin’s success thus far is a testament to Republicans’ political momentum as the Biden administration’s popularity tanks and congressional Democrats become consumed by party infighting. But it should also serve as a road map for other GOP candidates who desperately need to win back suburban voters in blue areas over the next several years. Youngkin has been able to do that by focusing on the issues these voters care about: education, tax cuts, and job growth.
He has also found an important balance regarding Trump. He’s connected to the president, and he still supports much of Trump’s past agenda. But Trump is not the centerpiece of Youngkin’s campaign, no matter how much McAuliffe would like him to be. (It also helps that Youngkin, in both his rhetoric and demeanor, sounds and acts nothing like Trump).
This is a balance that Republicans must take with them into 2022 and 2024, especially in swing states. Trump’s policies worked, and his agenda shifted Republican priorities in an important way — but he’s not the one running anymore (not yet, anyway).
If Youngkin wins this election, Republicans should take it as a sign that putting a little distance between themselves and Trump is a political necessity in parts of the country he lost. Trump might disagree, but Republicans should also keep in mind that he only has the power they give him.
