The use of exceptionally high-potency nerve agents against political dissidents is an attack on the liberal international order.
I note that in light of the German government confirmation on Wednesday that Alexei Navalny was poisoned with a Novichok-class nerve agent. A Russian political dissident, investigative journalist, and human rights activist, Navalny has long been a thorn in the side of Vladimir Putin’s corrupt oligarchical circle. The German government’s finding follows Navalny’s arrival in that nation on Aug. 22, after he fell ill on a flight from Siberia to Moscow on Aug. 20. The suspicion was that Navalny had been poisoned just before boarding that flight.
Now that Berlin assesses with high confidence that a Novichok agent was used against Navalny, the United States and European Union should introduce new sanctions on the Kremlin. To allow this poisoning to pass without riposte will only encourage Putin’s confidence that the West lacks the resolve to deter him. Considering NATO’s utterly shambolic air combat display on Friday, Russia’s attack on U.S. forces in Syria last week, and Putin’s cold-blooded KGB-realism, the need for a robust response is timely.
The targeting of Navalny with a Novichok agent makes Putin’s responsibility here near certain.
There is no credible possibility that anyone outside of the big three Russian intelligence services, the GRU, SVR, and FSB, could have acquired Novichok for weaponized application on Russian soil. While each of the services has access to the agent, that access is tightly controlled and authorized only for high-sensitivity operations. The GRU’s attempted assassination of a Russian defector, Sergei Skripal, for example. The only exceptions to the big three are members of Putin’s inner-circle security elite, the “Siloviki.” But none of those individuals would dare use Novichok without Putin’s approval. Putin retains tight operational control over assassination attacks, such as this one, which risk international ramifications such as sanctions.
The evidence appears clear cut.
As I noted last week, there were strong early indications to suggest that Navalny had been poisoned with a nerve agent and that the Russian FSB attempted to cover up the poisoning. Though I cannot say for certain, I am led to believe that the National Security Agency has collected high-grade intelligence indicating a Kremlin-directed rush by the FSB to prevent the doctors in Omsk, Russia, (where Navalny’s plane made an emergency landing) from publicly identifying the poison Navalny was issued. I understand that they were also instructed to prevent his expedient transfer to a German hospital, in fear that the Germans would do what they’ve now done, and clarify the substance with which Navalny was attacked. Regardless, the use of Novichok makes clear two basic points: that Putin wanted Navalny dead and that Putin assumed Navalny would die painfully but quickly.
So what now?
Well, as I say, the world must respond. Fortunately, Germany has issued an unusually strong statement. Berlin “condemns this attack in the strongest possible way,” said a spokesperson for Chancellor Angela Merkel, adding that Berlin will now reach out to the EU and NATO to discuss an “appropriate joint reaction.”
That reaction must be clear-cut and engage President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. I was told that Pompeo’s deputy Stephen Biegun raised Navalny’s plight on a visit to Moscow last week. But since then, we’ve heard radio silence from the Trump administration. At a minimum, the U.S. should join other international allies to engage in a collective expulsion of Russian intelligence officers. New sanctions on the Russian financial and energy sectors should then follow. Putin’s undaunted use of chemical weapons is a threat to us all. It must not stand.
