Brexit may be falling apart. On Sunday and early Monday, two top members of the Conservative Party leader’s cabinet resigned in rejection of Prime Minister Theresa May’s handling of Britain’s exit from the European Union.
The defections began on Sunday when Brexit secretary David Davis — the cabinet minister responsible for leading Britain’s planning and negotiations toward leaving the EU — stepped down. But things became a lot worse on Monday when May’s foreign minister and ardent Brexiteer, Boris Johnson, resigned.
So what’s going on?
In short, the fiercest advocates for UK independence think May is going soft and giving too much ground to the EU.
Conservative members of Parliament in favor of a “hard Brexit,” or systemic split from the EU, are angered by May’s new cabinet position seeking compromise with the EU on post-Brexit trade and immigration rules. That cabinet position was agreed last Friday evening, but has since fallen apart as cabinet members express skepticism that May will follow through on her pledges to limit the EU’s power over Britain. The hard-Brexiteer faction, of which Boris Johnson is the unofficial leader, wants Britain to set its future trading arrangements and governing structures without limitation by the EU.
These resignations thus put May in a very difficult position: Should she decide to double down on her recent agreement, May will win compromises from the EU and earn consolidation from Conservatives and others who favor a closer economic relationship with the political bloc. These “soft-Brexit” parliamentarians believe Britain must make compromises with the EU in order to ensure economically positive market access to EU markets. And with Brexit scheduled for March 29, 2019, time is running out to cut a good deal.
Yet if May takes that double-down approach, she may invite a leadership contest that sees her replaced by a new Conservative prime minister. David Davis and Boris Johnson would be the front-runners in this contest, although Jacob Rees-Mogg could make a dark horse bid for the prime minister’s residence at No. 10 Downing Street. But note that because Britain is a parliamentary democracy any new Conservative prime minister would not necessarily require a new general election in order to take power.
Still, that does speak to one factor that May has on her side: the prime minister has earned respect from the British public for her fastidious pursuit of a good Brexit deal and her balancing of the Conservative Party’s various warring factions. At the same time, Conservative parliamentarians from all sides are concerned that a leadership contest might cost them control of Parliament. Conservatives currently head a coalition government with the Democratic Unionist Party and a leadership spat could drive DUP out of the coalition. That would almost certainly spark a general election in which Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn could become prime minister.
And if Conservatives agree on anything, it’s that Jeremy Corbyn would be a disaster for Britain (and the U.S.). For that reason alone, Theresa May is likely to survive as prime minister, at least for the time being. Expect her to appoint a top hard-Brexit official to the foreign secretary’s office in order to consolidate her leadership. My bet is on the pro-American minister and Conservative brainiac, Michael Gove.
