We’re finally down to a matchup of much anticipation, the two best college football teams in the land. It’s the Tigers versus the Tigers — LSU and Clemson will battle it out in New Orleans for the national championship and a perfect, undefeated record.
Here’s my prediction record so far this season: Straight up — (39-12), against the spread (29-20, with one push). With that, here’s my preview and prediction of the big game Monday night.
No. 5 Clemson (14-0) vs. No. 1 LSU (14-0) (8:00 p.m. EST on ESPN)
There are so many great storylines and narratives throughout this game, but the bottom line is that Clemson is looking to win back-to-back championships, while LSU and Heisman Trophy winner Joe Burrow are looking to cap off a historic and magical season with the school’s first championship since 2007.
LSU will have the ultimate home-field advantage, playing at New Orleans in the Superdome just over 80 miles away from Tiger Stadium, commonly known as Death Valley. The last time LSU won the national championship, it was in the very same stadium.
Clemson travels incredibly well and comes in having won 29 games in a row. The last time the Tigers lost was to Alabama in the 2017 College Football Playoff semifinals. Where did it lose that game? The Superdome.
ESPN senior writer Andrea Adelson’s recent piece documented just how dominant Clemson has been over the past five years. She wrote, “Clemson has now tied the ACC record for consecutive victories, matching Florida State in 2012-14. Not only that, Clemson has the best record (69-4) in college football since 2015. Alabama is second at 66-6. Those 69 wins represent the most over a five-year span in the AP poll era.” That’s simply incredible. LSU’s dominance has been sensational to watch this season as well, but it’s not even remotely close to what Clemson has been able to accomplish over the past five seasons.
Dabo Swinney has led Clemson to two national titles over the last three seasons and has them playing for a potential third in four years. He’s obviously one of the best coaches in the country and, now, can be considered one of the best in the history of the game. He and LSU head coach Ed Orgeron are both incredible motivators and recruiters. Orgeron, however, has never been the head coach in a national title game. While we don’t know how that will affect him, we do know that the stories of Coach O are insane and approach the level of myth.
Nevertheless, Clemson comes into this game as the underdog, just as it did last year. We know how that turned out — they crushed Alabama, 44-16. Will the Clemson Tigers once again dethrone the SEC Champions in the national title game? Let’s take a look.
Offense
LSU’s Joe Burrow put up video game numbers at quarterback this season, winning the Heisman Trophy by the largest margin in the history of the award. He then threw seven touchdown passes in the first half against Oklahoma in the Tigers’s rout of the Sooners in the CFP semifinal. He has thrown for 17 touchdown passes and no picks in his last four games.
Over the course of the season, he has thrown for 5,208 yards and 55 touchdowns with just six interceptions while completing 77.6% of his passes. If it holds, that 77.6% would set an NCAA single-season record for completion percentage. He has also run for four touchdowns as well, giving him a total of 59 on the season.
On the other sideline stands the unflappable Trevor Lawrence. While he doesn’t have Burrow’s gaudy stats, he did lead Clemson to a national title as a true freshman and hasn’t lost a game in his college career. In fact, he has won 70 of his last 71 football games. Pat Forde recently wrote a wonderful story in Sports Illustrated about the high school quarterback who dealt Lawrence his last loss in a football game back in fall 2017.
The bottom line is that Lawrence is a winner. He sparked Clemson’s thrilling come-from-behind win against Ohio State in the semifinal with a 67-yard touchdown run and also led the Tigers down the field in crunch time for the go-ahead touchdown. He has thrown for 3,431 yards this season with 36 touchdowns and eight interceptions while completing 67.6% of his passes. His touchdown run against the Buckeyes proved that you have to account for his rushing ability, as well. He led the team in carries in the semifinal and finished with over 100 rushing yards. He’s averaging 5.5 yards per carry this season and has eight rushing scores.
While Lawrence hasn’t lost a college game and also led Clemson to the title last year, the edge still has to go to Burrow. He’s having a historically great season. I expect both quarterbacks to play incredibly well in this game. That’s more of a statement about my confidence in their abilities than it is about these two defenses because LSU’s defense is really good while Clemson’s is elite.
The running back duel between Travis Etienne and Clyde Edwards-Helaire should also be a great one. Connor O’Gara’s piece for Saturday Down South is a must-read for the back story (pun intended) on these two.
Here are their raw numbers against Power 5 opponents:
O’Gara noted that Edwards-Helaire, playing in the brutally difficult SEC West, played at his best against those top 20 defenses in LSU’s biggest games. He had at least 115 scrimmage yards in all four contests and averaged 155 yards. Edwards-Helaire racked up 180 scrimmage yards and four touchdowns in the Tigers’s win against the Crimson Tide. That made him the first player to do that against Nick Saban since he took over at Alabama.
While Edwards-Helaire has been exceptional this season, if I had to take one of these three-down backs over the other, I’d take Etienne. His numbers last year were insane as he finished fourth in the country in rushing yards and led the nation in yards per carry (8.1), rushing touchdowns, and touchdowns from scrimmage. This year, he’s still leading the country in yards per carry (8), but he’s a mere seventh in rushing yards, ninth in rushing touchdowns, and sixth in touchdowns from scrimmage.
Last year, he was the ACC Player of the Year and ACC Offensive Player of the Year. He won both awards again this season and became the ACC’s all-time leader in rushing touchdowns and touchdowns from scrimmage. His career yards per carry is 7.9. That’s third all-time in NCAA history since 1956. Did I mention he’s only a junior? Enjoy watching him in that Clemson uniform one final time because I expect him to enter the NFL Draft after this game.
Clemson’s Justyn Ross, who had a breakout performance in last year’s national title game where he went off for 301 receiving yards and three touchdowns, and Tee Higgins have combined for 21 receiving touchdowns and over 1,900 receiving yards. They were both banged up in the semifinal, so health will be key. They have to stay on the field in order to have an impact.
LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase won the Biletnikoff Award winner as the nation’s top wide receiver, but Justin Jefferson is just as good. Jefferson had 14 catches for 227 yards and four touchdown catches against the Sooners in the semifinal. ESPN notes that he and Chase are tied with 18 touchdown receptions this season, an LSU record, and tied for the SEC single-season mark. The two have combined for just under 3,000 receiving yards this season. Terrace Marshall Jr., who has 12 touchdown catches on the season, was injured and had to leave the game against Oklahoma but is expected to play in the title game. Jefferson has had an incredible career at LSU and is expected to enter the NFL Draft after the game.
There’s a big gap in the numbers when it comes to rushing. Clemson has the nation’s 11th-ranked rushing attack and averages 246.1 yards per game on the ground while LSU is 60th at 167 yards per game. As I’ll explain later, the best defense in this game might be a great offense. Keeping your offense on the field is the best way to keep your opponent’s offense off of it.
LSU leads the nation in scoring offense at 48.9 points per game while Clemson is fourth with 45.3 points per game. As talented as these two defenses are, the offenses might simply overpower them at times in this game. LSU averages nearly 400 yards per game through the air and has the most passing touchdowns in the country and the second-most passing yards per game.
Defense
LSU’s defense, led by Dave Aranda, hasn’t been as dominant this year as traditional LSU defenses have been in terms of scoring defense, but the Tigers are still incredibly talented and loaded with NFL-level talent. The Tigers have two great corners in star freshman Derek Stingley Jr. and Kristian Fulton, while safety Grant Delpit won the Thorpe Award as the country’s best defensive back.
The Tigers are 29th in the nation in scoring defense, allowing 21.6 points per game. When you have the top-scoring offense in the country and average 48.9 points per game, that number becomes more palatable.
One of the few categories that LSU is statistically better than Clemson on defense is preventing third-down conversions. The Tigers rank 9th, allowing teams to convert just 30.7% of their third downs. Clemson, meanwhile, is 11th at 31%.
Both teams are incredibly proficient at converting on third downs on offense. Clemson is 17th nationally at 46.5%, while LSU is 4th at 51.5%. The reason I have this stat under defense is because the best defense in this game might be a great offense. What’s the best way to ensure that Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence stay on the sideline? Sustaining drives, moving the chains, and taking time off the clock.
One of the biggest reasons that Clemson was able to come back against Ohio State in the semifinal was that it held Ohio State to field goals instead of touchdowns in the red zone in the first half. That kept the deficit manageable instead of it ballooning out of control. That game should have gotten ugly quickly, but the Buckeyes only led 16-0 instead of leading by much, much more.
Red zone defense is critical in these types of games. LSU put Oklahoma away very quickly in its semifinal matchup and was fantastic in the red zone as it has been all year long. LSU leads the nation in red-zone percentage, scoring on 97.1% of its drives inside the red zone. Clemson, for context, is 45th at 87.7%.
Clemson has allowed opponents to score on 75% of their trips to the red zone. That mark puts them in a tie for 16th nationally. LSU, meanwhile, is 21st at 76.3%. A big hold from the defense in the red zone might be one of the key moments in the game, just as it was in Clemson’s win against Ohio State.
Clemson’s defense has been elite again this season under Brent Venables. Venables has jumped into service over the years as the Tigers’s scout team quarterback to help prepare his defense for upcoming games, and that’s exactly what he did this past week as he helped try to get the Tigers ready for Joe Burrow.
Clemson’s Isaiah Simmons became the first Clemson Tiger to win the Butkus Award, presented annually to the nation’s top linebacker, and also collected ACC Defensive Player of the Year honors. He, like Delpit and Stingley Jr. for LSU, is a special talent.
The Tigers are ranked second in scoring defense, allowing just 11.5 points per game, second in total defense, allowing just 264.1 yards per game, first in passing defense, allowing just 151.5 passing yards per game, third in interceptions, seventh in team tackles for loss, first in first downs defense, fifth in turnover margin, 15th in rushing defense, and, as I said before, 11th in third-down defense. In 14 games, the Clemson Tigers have allowed just 18 touchdowns and 17 field goals. Total points allowed this season: 161. For context, LSU just put up 63 in its win over Oklahoma in its semifinal win.
It’s worth noting that Aranda and Venables are the nation’s two highest-paid assistant coaches. Aranda makes $2.5 million per year, and Venables makes $2.2 million per year. This is evidence of a trend in college football of increasing salaries for assistant coaches and the value that both programs place on these two assistant coaches to try and keep them from leaving for other jobs.
X-factors
My X-factor for the Clemson Tigers is their front seven against Burrow and LSU’s offensive line. One of the best ways to mess with a quarterback is to move him off of his spot and throw off his rhythm. Clemson has one of the best defensive lines in the country and, in my opinion, the best defensive coordinator in the country for the last four years in Brent Venables. Venables and the Clemson defense did an incredible job scheming for, frustrating, and attacking Tua Tagovailoa last year in the national title game. The Tigers will have to pressure Burrow consistently and flush him out of the pocket.
My X-factor for the LSU Tigers is their linebackers against Travis Etienne. Etienne led the Tigers in receiving yards against the Buckeyes and scored three touchdowns, two receiving and one rushing. I expect Clemson to deploy him out of the backfield as a receiver early and often. He’s tough to bring down and is deadly in open space. The Tigers will have to wrap him up and limit yards after contact.
The spread: LSU (-5.5)
The pick: I’m taking LSU to win but I like the points since I think this will be a relatively close game.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
