As Iran prepared to fire on Iraqi bases housing U.S. forces on Jan. 7, Vladimir Putin was celebrating Orthodox Christmas in an unlikely location — Syria. There, Bashar Assad thanked him for helping to “restore peaceful life in the republic,” where Russia intervened in 2015 to expand influence over the Middle East.
Though his Christmas visit to Syria was a surprise, Putin’s message to the world was familiar: Russia never abandons allies. Ever the opportunist, Putin seized a tense moment to signal that Russia, unlike the United States, is a stabilizing force in uncertain times.
As I know from experience, this is far from the truth. Sadly, Putin’s consistent support for anti-American regimes is working for him. Russia has an economy smaller than that of Texas and a fraction of America’s power projection capabilities, yet Putin punches above his weight in the global arena. By invading sovereign countries, shifting the borders of Europe, and subverting democratic institutions worldwide, he has defied the U.S.-led international order with relative impunity. Putin’s visit to Syria, as the United States and Iran reached the brink of war, showed his resolve to overturn it.
Wherever Washington wavers, Moscow sees opportunity. It’s high time for the U.S. to be consistent. That means reaffirming commitments to dependable allies — and increasing pressure on wayward ones.
The ideal place to start? Georgia.
Strategically located between Russia and Iran, Georgia is more geopolitically significant than ever. Despite the Kremlin’s onslaught of anti-American propaganda, Georgians remain overwhelmingly pro-Western. Georgia, though not a NATO member, is the highest per capita contributor of troops to U.S.-led missions in Afghanistan and Iraq.
But now, after years of mixed signals, the U.S. is in danger of losing Georgia.
At the start of my presidency in 2004, Washington’s democracy promotion was instrumental in helping Georgia become the world’s top reformer — a prerequisite to breaking free of Russia’s chokehold. But during the ill-fated “Russia reset,” Washington sacrificed hard-won trust in Georgia in hopes of improving relations with Moscow. Today, domestic polarization and international crises push Georgia lower on the list of priorities.
As the U.S. has stepped back from Georgia, Russia is filling the void. The Kremlin’s interference helped Bidzina Ivanishvili, an oligarch who made his fortune in Russia’s privatization wars, win power in 2012. He now rules Georgia informally from his glass castle overlooking the capital.
Since capturing the state, Ivanishvili has attempted to drag Georgia, kicking and screaming, back into the Russian sphere of influence. Last summer, his party invited a Russian parliamentarian and Putin ally to address the Georgian Parliament, triggering mass protests against Russian occupation. Prime Minister Giorgi Gakharia, a former Russian citizen who was then interior minister, ordered a violent crackdown on demonstrators. Instead of censuring Gakharia, Ivanishvili promoted him.
Another sign America is losing ground in Georgia came on Jan. 9, when the government drove the final nail into the coffin of the Anaklia Black Sea port. As Secretary of State Mike Pompeo noted in June, the infrastructure project is strategically significant for both Georgia and the U.S. Predictably, Russia vehemently opposes it. In canceling the project, Ivanishvili yet again takes the Kremlin’s side.
Ivanishvili also seems eager to help Russia score a major propaganda victory in The Hague. As the International Criminal Court investigates Russia’s 2008 invasion of Georgia, Ivanishvili’s lackeys in the Georgian government fall over themselves to absolve Putin of responsibility. A favorable verdict for Russia could mean indictments for Georgian officers defending their country. This would humiliate Georgians and Georgia’s allies, foremost the U.S.
With Russia’s intervention in Syria, Putin has stepped up cooperation with Iran — and simultaneously, Iran’s influence in Georgia has grown. In 2017, when Gakharia headed the Ministry of Economy, Iranian investment in Georgia skyrocketed 650%. It’s impossible to say how much, if any, of that investment was illicit. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps was reported to have 150 front companies in Georgia. Gakharia has ignited controversy by imprisoning, allegedly at the behest of Tehran, an Iranian intelligence defector. This couldn’t have occurred without a green light from Ivanishvili.
But Georgia is not yet lost. Ivanishvili’s regime faces growing resistance from Georgians, especially youths. The pro-Western opposition is more united than ever. But as long as Ivanishvili pulls the strings, Georgia cannot be a reliable ally.
The good news? Washington has significant leverage to pressure Ivanishvili: Much of his fortune is invested in the U.S.
Russia would undoubtedly protest. For Putin, foreign policy is a zero-sum game. Any enemy of the U.S. may be a useful partner for Russia, from Syria’s Assad to Venezuela’s Maduro to Iran’s ayatollahs. Ivanishvili, whom Putin views as a client, is no exception.
In uncertain times, Putin’s strength lies in consistency. But his alliances of convenience with tyrants, forged in antipathy and paranoia, would be no match for an American values-driven foreign policy.
Georgia is the perfect place to prove it.
Mikheil Saakashvili was president of Georgia from 2004-2013. He then served as governor of Ukraine’s Odessa region.
