Did Vladimir Putin just order an assassination attempt against Russian human rights activist and investigative journalist Alexei Navalny?
It certainly appears that way. Navalny was taken seriously ill on Thursday after flying from the central-southern Russian city of Tomsk to Moscow. Navalny’s passenger plane was forced to make an emergency landing in Omsk shortly after takeoff when he became agitated and fell unconscious. Long a thorn in the side of Putin and the Russian leader’s inner circle, Navalny is now comatose in a hospital.
So, what evidence do we have that Navalny was poisoned on Putin’s orders or with Putin’s acquiescence?
Nothing concrete, but much circumstantial. For a start, Navalny’s team said that medical staff have advised them that he was poisoned. Navalny’s spokesperson said that it is believed that a cup of tea Navalny drank at Tomsk airport had been poisoned. Video and photos posted to social media appeared to show Navalny crying out in agony on the flight, then being carried unconscious off the plane and onto a stretcher. Interestingly, Russia’s Interfax media outlet reported a source saying that Navalny is believed to have been poisoned with a hallucinogen. While these are early and uncorroborated reports, we should note that the use of high-toxicity hallucinogens was and is a favored pastime of Soviet Union and contemporary Russian intelligence services.
Those services retain large stockpiles of a wide array of chemical and biological weapons and have a particular penchant for nerve agent variants. These include the hallucinogenic 3-quinuclidinyl benzilate, for example, which is both soluble in water and, in high doses, produces symptoms including combative hallucinations and which can lead to a comatose state or even death. The FSB has access to these drugs and, through its operations stations in Tomsk and Omsk, could have poisoned Navalny, then pressured the Omsk hospital authorities to issue deceptive statements or act against his best interests.
The indication of state-sanctioned foul play here takes on further circumstantial credibility by the Kremlin’s response to Navalny’s illness.
While the activist’s team is requesting that he urgently be transported to a European medical facility, authorities are refusing to release him from the Omsk hospital. Navalny’s medical team said that only a European facility can provide the kind of care and blood analysis necessary to identify what has caused his illness. Time is of the essence, in that the flight time that would be necessary to get Navalny to a European medical center is significant. If the journalist is not allowed out of Russia in the very near future, it will strongly indicate a Kremlin attempt to hide evidence of his illness.
Then there’s the not-so-small fact that Putin and his minions despise Navalny. Responsible for bringing to light numerous corruption scandals, Navalny has been repeatedly imprisoned and attacked on the street. Notably, he was also poisoned during a period of imprisonment in July 2019. While Putin is too clever to be directly tied to any attack, such as this apparent incident, which proffers major international consequences including sanctions, he retains a reliable base of deniable actors who can and do carry out assassinations on his behalf. The rambunctious Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov offers a distinct example, here.
Critically important, also, is that Putin’s assassination calling card centers on unconventional methods that retain only a thin veil of deniability. That’s because these attack methods broadcast a simultaneous message of aggression, intimidation, and impunity. But note one final point: When high-profile targets such as Navalny or the 2015 murder victim Boris Nemtsov are involved, these individuals are not targeted without Putin’s approval.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo needs to speak up quickly. He should demand an objective investigation and Navalny’s access to immediate medical treatment abroad. Alongside congressional leaders, Pompeo should make clear that if Navalny dies, new sanctions will ensure that the Russian energy economy dies along with him.
