On Tuesday, the impeachment trial of President Trump will finally commence in the Senate. The lead-up has been filled with much delay, partisan spectacle, and the sense that everything hangs on what happens in the coming days. For Democrats, it’s a culmination of not only current hopes but what many of their members have longed for since the start of Trump’s presidency. Meanwhile, the Republican majority is confident that the trial will result in an acquittal.

With the presidential election now a little less than 10 months away, both parties hope that the story of impeachment will have a dramatic effect on the electorate. However, the more likely scenario is that Trump’s impeachment and the trial will do little to sway anyone. Even if there is some change of heart, it will not be to a significant or measurable degree.