Missile strikes targeting Syrian military bases killed a number of people early Monday.
Two factors suggest that Israel was almost certainly responsible for the attack. First, the strikes used air-to-ground missiles in form and effect of Israeli techniques. Second, the strikes resulted in secondary explosions; indicating that arms depots were targeted.
The secondary explosions that are the most telling indicator of Israeli involvement. After all, Israel’s interest in Syria is really about Iran. First, Israel is set on preventing Iranian forces from using Syrian President Bashar Assad’s territory as a base with which to access the Mediterranean. Second, Israel hopes to stop Iran from providing more advanced rocket and missiles to the Lebanese Hezbollah.
By attacking facilities such as those targeted early Monday, Israel seeks to destroy Iranian missile stockpiles and to remind Tehran that Israel will not sacrifice its dominant balance of power status regarding Lebanon and Syria. That status rests on the notion that Iran or its proxies will not be able to effectively target major Israeli population centers with longer range rockets or surface launched missiles
Of course, the Iranians are also determined to succeed. And with the Iranian hardliners having suffered repeated Israeli strikes without riposte, the likelihood of their retaliating against Israeli interests is now exceptionally high.
What happens if they do so?
Israeli counter-retaliation and the prospect of broader regional conflict. It is notable, however, these latest strikes took place astride a visit to Israel from newly confirmed Secretary of State Mike Pompeo. That timing is a clear sign from the Trump administration to Iran that intends to stand with the Jewish state.
