Now that we are past the Supreme Court nomination drama, the majority of air time on cable news and column inches in newsprint will be vacuumed up by midterm election coverage (look out for clickbait — consider yourselves forewarned). Given the media’s appetite for “hot takes” and faux certainty, this pseudo-news and commentary will be predominantly focused on politicians or pundits telling you which side is going to win. One person’s blue wave is another’s angry mob, after all.
To quote the eminent philosopher (and member of Public Enemy) Harry Allen: “Don’t believe the hype.” It’s not about Taylor Swift. Nor is it about Justice Brett Kavanaugh. At the end, it’s going to be about the voters — as it always is.
No sooner have we left one media spin cycle that we have a new one on our hands — and it’s another political Rorschach exam: What you see and believe likely is a reflection on your perspective, rather than factual analysis. Over the weekend, we saw headlines claiming:
- The Supreme Court nomination fight has galvanized the Democrats.
- The Supreme Court nomination fight has awoken the slumbering Republican base.
- The Supreme Court nomination fight has saved the Republican Senate but hurt the Republican House.
Note to viewers and readers: This is not rigorous news-gathering. This is not data-driven analysis. It is assertion and aspirational thinking along the lines of a motivational speaker, aiming to form the reality and presumptions of the public.
But the news is going to be there anyway, so how best to absorb and process it — giving it the weight it deserves? As a former ombudsman, journalist, and communications director for a senator, I offer a viewer’s guide to coverage for the next four weeks:
- Is the commentator affiliated with a party, trying to create an advantageous narrative?
- Is the commentator an elected official or candidate, trying to improve their chances?
- If there are polls, are they national or district/state-specific? Though Election Day is a national matter, each district and state has its own dynamics — so feel free to ignore national data. How come? Imagine having a poll that shows Democrats have a 20 percent edge in California and Iowa, only to find out that this is because there is a 40 percent edge in California and a dead heat in Iowa.
- On a related note, you’d also be wise to ignore the generic ballots driving coverage, especially this close to the election. The men and women on the ballots are not proxies or ciphers, they have platforms and personalities and brands that transcend and differentiate themselves from a broad party alignment. (Plus, the political spectrum can still be slippery, even in these polarized times.)
- When there is a surprising poll, don’t take it as a huge turnaround — even though the clickbait knob will be dialed to 11 those days — as the sample size is too small and may have had a glitch. Do we really think the Boston Red Sox will win every game in the playoffs 16-1 from this point on, as they did in Yankee Stadium on Monday night?
- Where there are reporters on the ground hearing “a massive enthusiasm” from the people they talk to, remember that this can be a product of folks who choose to talk to reporters (a self-selecting group) or those actively participating in the election.
If you were asking this writer for a handicap, I would have to place the favor on the side of the Democrats who have been motivated and angry for years over the Republican Party who has, for the most part, seen their agenda fulfilled and their frustrations acted upon. Several special elections across the country have shown a higher activation rate among the Left, so there is that to consider. But President Trump is campaigning across the country and telling potential voters to vote as if he is on the ticket — which is a mixed bag, and will again speak to the state-by-state differences. (If you ever doubt this, review the regularly-updated Trump State-By-State poll in Morning Consult.)
In short: Take nothing for granted. Regardless of your political affiliation, stay informed, engaged, and keep that plan to cast a ballot on Nov. 6.
Matthew Felling (@matthewfelling) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. He is a former print/TV/radio journalist, media critic, and U.S. Senate communications director, now serving as a public affairs and crisis consultant with Burson-Marsteller in Washington.
