President Trump has a huge decision to make: Should he keep Vice President Mike Pence as his running mate, or consider other options that may yield renewed vigor into Trump’s voting base?
Most incumbents keep their vice president for another term, but there have been several instances where new running mates were selected to best wrangle their party’s support for a second term. The last time a sitting president didn’t run for reelection with his vice president was 1976, when President Gerald Ford ran with Bob Dole instead of Vice President Nelson Rockefeller (though the circumstances of Ford’s presidency were obviously unique). With the final year of a presidential term as chaotic as this, including an impeachment trial, economic crash, and a pandemic (and it’s only April), Trump must exhaust all available options to unite and expand his base of support.
Is Mike Pence the best running mate to do so?
Even though Pence endorsed Ted Cruz for Indiana’s presidential primary in 2016, Pence was selected as Trump’s running mate in 2016 for several reasons: to be the establishment yin to Trump’s outsider yang, to solidify the religious Right, and to secure the GOP base in the Midwest, among others. He was also strong in areas Trump lacked, such as political experience in Washington and long-established connections with the Republican Party.
But now, Trump has more than three years of Washington experience under his belt and has cemented himself as the bonafide leader of the party. For several reasons, especially now with the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 election will be much different than 2016, with a plethora of social, cultural, and political shifts. While Pence has been a staunch conservative and a loyal devotee to Trump, he is also a very plain white, Christian male. Some party leaders fear that a lack of diverse representation will turn away otherwise persuadable voters. Pence’s strengths in 2016 may be seen as flaws in 2020.
Pence is the president’s most vocal and consistent supporter, but is that alone enough for Pence to remain in Trump’s favor? Some political strategists say Trump initially appointed Pence to head the coronavirus task force as an out, hoping for a poor performance to serve as an excuse to dump Pence and replace him. This may have been the case, or Pence’s appointment could have been a sign of Trump’s trust and confidence in Pence.
So, if not Pence, then who?
Joe Biden has a similar dilemma this year. He already promised to pick a female running mate, and Stacey Abrams, as an African-American, is pushing for herself to get picked. If Trump opts to counter this with a Republican woman of color, his only solid option would be former South Carolina Governor and U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley. But some think Haley is eyeing a presidential run in 2024, and she may decide it’s easier to run as a Trump administration outsider rather than sitting vice president (or failed vice presidential candidate, if Trump loses). The Republican Party lacks a deep farm team of diverse female officeholders with name recognition. Another notable Republican woman of color, Mia Love, served two terms in Congress before losing her reelection campaign in 2018.
Subsequently, the Trump campaign would likely explore black or Hispanic male Republicans, potentially from geographically advantageous areas such as Texas and Florida. Sens. Ted Cruz or Marco Rubio are potential options, but, like Haley, both probably have their own 2024 ambitions. If any campaign discussions have indeed considered a new shortlist of running mates for Trump, some potential names probably have an asterisk in case the person in question might be unwilling to join the ticket.
The decision comes down to a single quality above all else: loyalty to Trump. A lacking or hesitating loyalty has led to the removals of advisers and cabinet members in the Trump administration. But if Trump feels loyalty, he reciprocates. As Trump himself says in his 2015 book, Crippled America: How to Make America Great Again: “Loyalty is extremely important to me. My family and close friends will say that I am loyal to a fault.”
Pence has consistently and genuinely shown the loyalty desired by Trump. Regardless of the other pros and cons, that’s why he will almost certainly remain on the ticket as Trump’s running mate.
Thomas Peterson is a research associate at a political consulting firm. He has experience on several Republican political campaigns.
