Jobless claims haven’t been this low since 1969. President Trump is taking the credit, and he isn’t all wrong. Bills he has signed and regulatory actions he has taken have helped unleash businesses to hire more, pay more, and in the end make life better for workers.
Where Trump errs is in taking direct credit. Trump’s interventions in the economy, his tariffs to protect favored manufacturers, and the subsidies he has advocated for some industries or employers have boosted fortunes in the short term for a few jobs. But they haven’t on the aggregate improved the jobs picture. That’s because government intervention generally can only reshuffle resources and jobs, while only economic growth can enrich and empower the working man.
Tariffs can protect certain employers from competition, thus giving them more room to raise prices and thus possibly hire more and increase wages. If we look narrowly at aluminum jobs, then tariffs can be considered a success. But that’s how the Left views economic policy. They look at a narrow, politically favored slice of the economy, like wind turbines or a friendly labor union, and figure out how government can help that segment. In the process, they stultify the broader economy by dragging capital away from more productive activities.
Similarly, special subsidies (such as Trump and Vice President Mike Pence’s favors for Carrier’s Indiana plant) can protect a few jobs. But government-protected jobs are not sustainable, and they typically come at the expense of other jobs.
In the case of tariffs, every aluminum-producing job protected by tariffs comes at the expense of a job in an industry that consumes aluminum, such as car makers. And if the aluminum job depends on government protection, it’s not going to be around for the long run. Then there’s the cost to consumers. Tariffs mean higher prices, which means less consumer surplus, which means less spending to stimulate more investment by business.
Trump, though, has paved the way for plenty of job creation. The key hasn’t been government creation of jobs, but government getting out of the way. The tax cut bill he championed and signed was a perfect instance of this. With the lower individual and corporate rates there are many more business opportunities that are worth the investment for business. There’s more competition. The result is more enterprise and more hiring.
Deregulation has a similar effect. Regulation creates higher barriers. Only the least risky, highest margin undertakings are worthwhile risks in a high-regulation economy. With less regulation, it’s easier for Mom and Pop to set up shop with humbler aims. If 10,000 Moms and Pops bloom, that points you toward record-low jobless claims.
So Trump should be proud about the employment numbers. He can even take some credit — for getting out of the way.
