“Reports that say that something hasn’t happened are always interesting to me because, as we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say, we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns — the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
— Then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld, February 2002
In June, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence is scheduled to provide an intelligence community report to Congress on unidentified flying objects. Or what the Pentagon refers to as “unidentified aerial phenomena.”
This report matters. Credible military witnesses and radar data suggest that UFOs may have been flying around in U.S. airspace since, or even prior to, the Second World War. The vast majority of UFOs are weather or astronomical phenomena, misidentified airframes, or the products of defective witness reports. But some UFOs are true unknowns. That is to say, objects which have evaded exhaustive attempts at identification. Those UFOs are the subject on which the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, led by then-Chairman Marco Rubio, sought answers when it requested this intelligence community report back in 2020.
What can we expect? What should we expect?
Much of the report’s content is likely to fall within a classified annex, held there to protect the sources and methods of U.S. intelligence-gathering efforts. But if Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines accedes to the Senate’s democratic mandate, the report should include four public findings.
First, the assessment that some credible UFOs are very likely to be capabilities operated by other arms of the U.S. government or by foreign adversaries. Tyler Rogoway recently documented this concern in detail at the War Zone. A standout consideration here is the possibility that China and Russia are using U.S.-, Canada-, or Central American-based civilian aircraft and civilian freighters as launch platforms for balloon or drone-based air operations in U.S. military training areas.
Such tactics might feasibly evade U.S. military sensors designed to detect foreign military submarines and aircraft, for example. Balloons would appear to offer a particularly cheap and deniable means of signals and electronic intelligence collection against U.S. military assets. Indeed, some photographs of UFOs recently taken by U.S. military aircrews bear similarity to balloons. Elements of the U.S. government might also be conducting “red team” detection-response tests by operating unconventional drones and sensor deception platforms near to U.S. forces. The Pentagon could then, at least somewhat honestly, claim that these UFO incidents involve “unidentified aerial phenomena,” even if it had a suspicion that the UFOs were actually being operated by other government arms.
Still, this is only one of the four points the report should address. I emphasize that concern because I fear that Haines may play up this factor to the exclusion or underplaying of the three others. And that would be incompatible with the spirit of the Senate’s request and the obligation, compatible with protecting national security, to inform the public more fully as to what is going on.
Consider what I believe should be the second factor in the report. Namely, that the most compelling UFOs, those UFOs which lack conventional alternative explanation after exhaustive investigation, give credible indication of being highly advanced, intelligently controlled vehicles. The government’s confidence that these most compelling UFOs are vehicles versus amorphous “things” takes root in data returns from multiple sensor platforms. These platforms include satellite, sonar, radar, full-spectrum electromagnetic, and trained military observer witness reports (such as Air Force and Navy ground and flight crews).
Third factor: based on the same evidence, the assessment that some of these UFOs have performance capabilities beyond the understood technical capacity of any Earth nation. This sounds extraordinary, and it is. But even if not offered formally in writing, it is also the truth recognized by those who have worked intimately on this issue. After all, these most compelling UFOs evince means of non-jet propulsion-based hypersonic travel in the air and in space and of 100 knots-plus speeds underwater. Some UFOs also show apparent anti-gravity capabilities, reflected by their instantaneous acceleration and deceleration in a manner that would otherwise cause self-destruction under the stresses of hundreds of G-forces.
This international caveat of “any Earth nation” is critical. Sources tell me that although the most compelling UFOs are a global phenomena, no element of the U.S. government or private sector (such as Elon Musk) has vehicles that can do what these UFOs can do. Nor, they tell me, is the intelligence community aware of any credible evidence to suggest that so-called “near peer” nations such as China, Russia, or Israel are in possession of such vehicles.
Fourth factor: that there is a synergy between the appearance of these most compelling UFOs and specific, contemporaneous events. Notably, the presence of nuclear extraction, power, and weapons activities. Although it is classified as top secret, this is one reason the Navy assesses that its aircraft carriers and submarines (nuclear powered, and in some cases, nuclear armed) frequently interact with UFOs.
As I say, all of this matters greatly. Former Presidents George W. Bush and Donald Trump have recently taken questions on UFOs and have refused to rule them out as explained. For the first time, former President Barack Obama this week admitted that some UFOs show unexplained performance characteristics and behavior patterns.
Chris Mellon is a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for intelligence. Mellon has been instrumental in forcing the Pentagon to address this issue more publicly and in ensuring that Congress is fully informed by the Pentagon and intelligence community. On Tuesday, he told me that “the current range of opinion and speculation is a testament to the incredible and unacceptable amount of ignorance and uncertainty we are living with. We urgently need action to find the truth regardless of the answers.”
Indeed. The intelligence community’s first responsibility is to gather and corroborate information that can be used to inform the nation’s national security leadership. As directed by Congress, as with this report, Director Haines and the intelligence community have an obligation to provide people with the best assessment of the available information.
The possibility that something extraordinary is occurring is no longer a legitimate excuse for deflection.
