Meteorologists have a thankless job. Accurate predictions are taken for granted, and incorrect ones face a torrent of scorn.
New England Patriots head coach Bill Belichick, when asked about the weather conditions for an upcoming game, once quipped, “I’m just telling you — if I did my job the way they do theirs, I’d be here about a week.”
Truth is, though, Belichick is wrong. Weather is tricky to predict, but technological advances in meteorology have upped the percentages. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, meteorologists get seven-day forecasts right about 80% of the time and 5-day forecasts correct 90% of the time.
It’s worth nothing this as we approach the 75th anniversary of Operation Overlord, more commonly known as D-Day: June 6, 1944. The biggest seaborne invasion in history, the Battle of Normandy might not have gone as well if it happened a day earlier, as initially planned. And it was a weather forecast that helped turn the tide of the war.
Gen. Dwight Eisenhower’s chief meteorologist, British Capt. James Stagg, urged the Allied commander to wait a day in the face of his forecast of rough seas and high winds in the English Channel. Stagg stood alone among his colleagues, but he turned out to be right. Eisenhower listened, and while conditions on the following day were not ideal, not exactly beach weather, they were good enough for a successful landing.
