Vladimir Putin is in a Middle Eastern wonderland this week. With perfect timing, his regional interests are all coming together.
Precipitously betraying those who suffered thousands killed in action to defeat the Islamic State, President Trump has painted himself as unreliable and America as unworthy of alliance. Visiting the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia on Monday, Putin will have offered those erstwhile U.S. allies a simple message: “You can’t trust Trump, but you can trust me.”‘ Putin will try to persuade them and Egypt to realign out of America’s orbit and towards Russia. “I can control your nemesis, Iran,” Putin will say. But, he’ll add, “It will cost you. You must buy more Russian military equipment and push OPEC to drive up oil prices.”
It gets better for the Russian president.
With America’s YPG-aligned Kurdish allies now abandoned, they’ve cut a security deal with Russia and Russia’s puppet, Bashar Assad. Assad’s forces are now approaching Turkish forces. It’s another grand opportunity for Putin to show his influence, an opportunity created by the KGB man for just that effect.
Putin will now be warning President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of Turkey to back off. Erdoğan will complain for a few days but will likely acquiesce. The Turkish leader has few options now. With Trump and the European Union already condemning his offensive, they will refuse any Turkish request for NATO support against Russian threats. Moreover, Erdoğan knows that Putin will out-escalate him if he forces the line. Recent history testifies to Putin’s dominance of Erdoğan in Turkey.
Still, Putin is no idiot. Aware that Erdoğan’s Islamic-nationalist base is now wholly committed to his Turkish offensive, he’ll offer a sweetener for Erdoğan to suspend his offensive. Namely, the chance to go after Kurdish groups as, and when, Putin sees fit. And the opportunity to get in on Assad’s redevelopment of eastern Syria’s oil industry.
For Putin, it’s the art of the deal.
He gets to present himself as the guarantor of Kurdish security interests against Turkey, and simultaneously of Turkish security interests against the Kurds. And then he’ll pick up the phone to the Sunni monarchies and ask them a question: “What did I tell you? I’m reliable, America is not. You should follow my leadership and forget the Americans.”
Will they listen?
Born of political cultures where perception matters as much as reality, they will struggle not to do so. Trump thinks he’s ending a stupid war. Reality will show he has traded a great gift to a keystone American enemy in return for a few tweets.
