Ahead of Tuesday’s California recall election, polls show favorable double-digit leads for Gov. Gavin Newsom.
Politicians including President Joe Biden, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Vice President Kamala Harris, and former President Barack Obama have come to Newsom’s rescue. Media coverage has been favorable on Newsom and tough on right-wing radio host Larry Elder, the favorite to succeed Newsom if the recall fails.
Game over, right?
Not so fast. The concrete figures are not encouraging for Newsom.
As of Sept. 9, only nearly 7,367,000 ballots, or around 33% of ballots, had been returned and accepted by mail and in-person altogether — even though all registered California voters have received a mail-in ballot. According to CBS News, 56% “of ballots are from registered Democrats, and about a quarter are from registered Republicans.” As of Aug. 30, there are 10,265,897 registered Democrats and 5,298,738 registered Republicans in the Golden State, according to the California Secretary of State’s office.
These numbers are underwhelming and should raise alarm in the Newsom camp. Republican voters tend to show up to the polls in person on election day. With many Democrats content with the polls and likely to stay home and Republicans fired up about Newsom, we may see enough Republicans show up to make the recall successful.
We shall see.
Jackson Richman is a journalist in Washington, D.C. Follow him @jacksonrichman.
