His Brexit plan defeated in the House of Commons on Tuesday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson is today expected to ask for Parliament to approve a snap election on or around Oct. 15. The stakes are huge.
To start, we have Jeremy Corbyn’s left-wing Labour Party opposition and the center-left, pro-Europe Liberal Democrats pushing for a new referendum on Brexit. With sustained polling suggesting a second referendum would result in a verdict to stay in the European Union, a Labour victory — or a Labour-Liberal Democrat coalition of some kind — is likely to cancel Brexit entirely.
A Jeremy Corbyn premiership would also be significant for other reasons. For one, Corbyn is so devoted a socialist that he makes Bernie Sanders look moderate. Corbyn deeply dislikes the special relationship with the U.S., seeks a massive nationalization campaign of the British economy, and wants tax hikes to pay for a greatly expanded entitlement state.
What is the most likely outcome of any election?
Well, the polls suggest it will be close. While the Conservatives retain a 4% to 10% national share lead over Labour, the Liberal Democrats have established a 15% to 18% national position. Translated into parliamentary seats, that would feasibly enable the Liberal Democrats to form some kind of coalition with Labour.
But Johnson might have his own secret weapon: Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party.
Though skeptical of former Prime Minister Theresa May’s more flexible approach to the European Union, Farage is supportive of Johnson. And with the Brexit Party polling around 13%, Farage could give Johnson the partner he might need to form a new government and see Brexit carried out.
Of course, as we’ve repeatedly learned in recent years — with the Brexit 2016 referendum included — polls in the U.K. are best judged with some caution. One thing is certain. If Parliament approves an election, the stakes for Britain’s future will be very high.
