President Trump and Congress should pledge that new sanctions will follow any Russian deployment of security forces to Belarus.
The warning is necessary following Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko’s request for Vladimir Putin’s security assistance. Following his election theft on Aug. 9, Lukashenko has used violence in an effort to intimidate protesters into staying home. It hasn’t worked. Instead, the dictator has only galvanized deeper resistance to his rule. Protests have grown, culminating in massive street marches through Minsk on Sunday. Things haven’t improved this week for the man who has ruled Belarus for 26 years. Holding a rally at a factory on Monday, Lukashenko was met not by cheers, but by roars of “go away! Go away!”
That brings us to Putin. The two leaders spoke on Sunday and agreed that the source of these popular protests is external pressure from NATO-aligned nations. It’s a false claim, but by presenting his difficulties as external, Lukashenko offers a pretense of legitimacy for his ongoing repression. He also gives Putin the excuse to intervene militarily, should the two leaders decide it necessary. What now?
Well, while it’s unlikely that Russia would deploy conventional forces to Belarus, Putin has likely already deployed military intelligence teams. A targeted crackdown against protest leaders and prominent dissidents is most likely to follow. The United States should not watch idly. While the Trump administration has now, albeit belatedly, condemned Lukashenko, no U.S. sanctions have yet been threatened either on him or Putin. That strikes an unfortunate contrast with the normally docile European Union, which has agreed to move ahead with sanctions.
U.S. leadership matters for two reasons. First, in service of Belarusian human rights and America’s credibility as global leader of the post-war liberal international order. Second, because Putin will use his support to Lukashenko as a pivot upon which to advance his ultimate interest in absorbing Belarus as part of Russia. Were that absorption to occur, it would mean Russian forces almost totally surrounding the Baltics and compressing Poland from two sides. In short, it would add to an already significant challenge for NATO war planners.
While oil prices are rising (which helps Putin in that his government revenue stream is dependent on oil exports), Putin is keen to see an end to U.S. and European sanctions introduced following his 2014 seizure of Crimea and 2016 U.S. election interference. With France and Italy pushing to relax these sanctions, Putin senses that he might soon get what he wants. If, however, the Russian leader believes any incursion in support of Lukashenko will see the sanctions momentum shift against him, he’ll proceed more cautiously. It’s a common misconception that Putin is some kind of Russian neoconservative, out to take grand risks in order to reshape the world under his particular oligarchical-patronage ideology. In reality, Putin is a risk-tolerant realist, predisposed to advance Russian global power, but not at all costs.
In turn, the U.S. must take a lead in deterring Putin from trammeling Belarusians in their aspiration for representative democracy. And to prevent the Kremlin from bolstering its threat to NATO.
