President Joe Biden only delivered half the message to Vladimir Putin when he warned the Russian leader against engaging in further cyberattacks.
It’s not enough simply to tell Putin that there are certain lines he should not cross. It’s also necessary to outline the consequences he will face if he crosses those lines and be prepared to follow through on those consequences if necessary.
Biden, to his credit, got the first part right. Unfortunately, by his own account, he didn’t give Putin a clear idea of how the United States would respond to Russian cyberattacks on our critical infrastructure.
Instead of outlining clear repercussions, Biden recounted speaking vaguely of America’s “significant cybercapability” and informing Putin that America would respond “in the cyber way.” He also recalled lecturing the Russian strongman in the style of a parent chiding a youngster about remembering the Golden Rule.
“I looked at him and I said, ‘Well, how would you feel if ransomware took on the pipelines from your oil fields?’” Biden told the press, declaring with an air of finality that Putin “said it would matter.”
That approach might work when a toddler is refusing to share, but it’s hopelessly naive to think it would work on one of the most ruthless practitioners of realpolitik in the world. One can easily imagine Putin rolling his eyes while Biden patted himself on the back.
Was the U.S. president threatening a ransomware attack on Russian oil assets? Possibly, but the fact that he wouldn’t just come right out and say it clearly weakens its effectiveness as a deterrent. And in any event, Putin has already made the calculated risk that America might retaliate, so Biden’s threat is nothing he hasn’t already considered.
Biden revealed a bit more of his thinking at the post-summit press conference after a reporter got under his skin as he was leaving the stage by asking what makes him so confident that Russia will change its behavior.
“What will change their behavior is if the rest of world reacts to them and it diminishes their standing in the world,” Biden declared. “I’m not confident of anything; I’m just stating a fact.”
In other words, Biden is counting on other countries to wag their fingers at Putin and tsk-tsk at him if he engages in aggressive behavior.
That’s the equivalent of putting a sign in your yard that says, “Don’t steal from me, or I’ll get all my neighbors to say they don’t like you.” It’s not nearly as effective as a sign saying, “Beware of vicious dog,” or, “I support the Second Amendment.”
It’s absurd to think that the threat of international opprobrium would faze Putin, who has spent the past two decades practically reveling in his status as a global pariah. Time and again, Putin has sat patiently and listened while world leaders harangue him over his latest transgression, then proceeded to get his way anyhow through pure power politics.
Biden just became the latest in a long line of long-winded chumps who puff up their chests and boast about getting tough with Putin but ultimately accomplish nothing with their false bravado.
It’s pretty clear that Putin wasn’t fazed by Biden’s pageantry. Immediately after their relatively brief meeting, Putin held a press conference in which he responded to a question about Russia’s human rights abuses by referencing the Black Lives Matter riots that roiled the United States last summer.
He clearly understands that Biden’s core interests are appearances and his own reputation, rather than putting America first.
Phill Kline is the former Kansas attorney general. He currently serves as pulpit pastor of Amherst Baptist Church, a law school professor, and director of the Amistad Project of the Thomas More Society.
