The apparent Ukrainian strike against the Saky military base in Russian-occupied Crimea on Tuesday may have brought the war a little closer to Moldova — and the Romanian border.
Early this week, a convoy of High Mobility Artillery Rocket System artillery vehicles was observed in Focsani, Romania — approximately 300 kilometers south of the border with Ukraine but less than 100 kilometers west of the Moldova border and its contentious Transnistria region. The military garrison at Focsani houses the 81st Tactical Operational Missiles Brigade of the Romanian Land Forces. Its location is of obvious strategic value.
Romania purchased 54 M142 HIMARS launchers for $1.3 billion in August 2017. Delivery of the first 18 systems arrived in Romania in February 2021. These systems were assigned to the 81st Tactical Operational Missile Brigade and were observed for the first time during a June test firing exercise.
Why does this matter?
Because Transnistria is about to get hot again. The precarious relationship between Moldova and Russia is well documented. It was further complicated recently when Moldova’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson confirmed that “officers of the so-called operational group of Russian troops … were not allowed into the territory of Moldova” and then reiterated the “need to unconditionally resume the process of withdrawing Russian troops [approximately 1,500] and ammunition depots from our country.” Further complicating the situation was the announcement in July that Transnistria would pursue independence with “subsequent accession to Russia.”
Moldovan Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita is worried. She has seen this before in Georgia, Crimea, and now the Donbas and added, “If a country can start an annexation war without any regard for international law, then in this sense, nobody is safe.” Moldova gained its independence from Russia in 1991 and was recently granted candidate status to join the European Union, two factors that only serve to agitate Russian President Vladimir Putin. The threat is real. The fighting in Odesa and Crimea brings the war to Moldova’s doorstep — today’s attack at the Saky military base could be just the beginning.
Enter Romania, Moldova’s big brother. Many Moldovans hold dual citizenship with Romania. But Romania is also a source of contention for Russia. Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, suggested in June that Moldova might try to fast-track its membership in the EU by uniting with Romania. Any deployment of Russian soldiers to Moldova could heighten Romania’s defense posture — placing additional stress on Article V of the NATO Charter.
Granted, this is a worst-case scenario, one that even Moldova’s prime minister acknowledged is only “a hypothetical scenario for now.” Russian ground forces are in no position to invade Moldova. But a fully mission-capable HIMARS-equipped Romanian missile brigade in proximity of the Moldovan border should not be discounted. Romania could very well be its brother’s keeper.
Jonathan Sweet, a retired Army colonel, served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division, Air Assault, DIA, NSA, and NGA. He led the U.S. European Command Intelligence Engagement Division from 2012-14, working with NATO partners in the Black Sea and Baltics. Follow him on Twitter @JESweet2022.
