Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal has laid down a marker on conservative alternatives to President Obama’s healthcare law that could shape the 2016 Republican presidential race — even if he doesn’t win.
On Tuesday, Jindal wrote a letter to Congress, putting members on notice: “(C)onservatives need to focus on truly conservative health reforms — and not merely a slightly-less-liberal plan.”
He followed this up with a speech in Washington, D.C., where he took a swipe at Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., and House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio.
“If the whole point of this election was simply to give John Boehner and Mitch McConnell nicer offices, let’s give them back,” Jindal said, as reported by my Washington Examiner colleague Jason Russell. “What is the point of having a Republican Party if it’s only going to become a second liberal party?”
Jindal is actually fired up about something that, at first, sounds like a rather mundane technical matter involving budgetary baselines. But he’s really highlighting one of the key fault lines on the right when it comes to crafting alternatives to the healthcare law, which I explore in more depth in my book, Overcoming Obamacare.
Every proposal in Washington is evaluated based on how it would affect taxes and spending relative to the status quo. For almost five years now, the status quo has included Obamacare — so all of its taxes and spending are taken as a given by the Congressional Budget Office.
If Republicans use this baseline, they’ll have a lot of money to play with when crafting an alternative. Since Obamacare is projected to spend roughly $2 trillion over the next decade, Republicans could produce a plan that costs say, $1.5 trillion, and they’d still be able to claim that they’re slashing spending by $500 billion.
One Republican alternative plan, first unveiled last year but re-introduced for this Congress on Thursday by Sens. Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, Richard Burr, R-N.C., and Rep. Fred Upton, R-Mich., does lean on the current Obamacare baseline. And it includes a tax increase on employer-based health insurance that helps finance generous subsidies for low-income Americans to purchase coverage.
But Republicans have another option. They could wipe out Obamacare completely, return tax and spending levels to where they would have been if the law had never passed, and build a free market alternative from scratch. This is the approach that Jindal favors and that he took when he released his own healthcare plan last year.
Going this route would mean that Republicans couldn’t spend much on subsidizing health coverage, opening them up to attacks that they’re stripping away Obamacare without offering a sufficient life raft for its beneficiaries. Jindal argues that Republicans shouldn’t fall into the trap of competing with Democrats on coverage totals and that they should instead focus on reducing costs.
Whatever the policy debate, politically speaking, it’s clear to see how Jindal’s position could influence other candidates in the Republican presidential primary. Though Jindal hasn’t been among the leaders in early presidential polls, he’s still viewed as an important policy voice among conservatives, especially on healthcare.
As Jindal put it on Thursday, “Our candidates said they were going to repeal and replace Obamacare. That means all of it. That means you have to get rid of all the tax increases, you get rid of all the regulations, all the spending, all of it.”
Though his message was meant for Republican Congressional leaders, it could also be directed at any potential 2016 presidential rivals who consider plans that exploit the Obamacare taxes and spending levels rather than starting fresh.
Other Republicans may be forced to follow his lead in the primaries, meaning that no matter his own political fortunes, his crusade could end up shaping the plan that the eventual nominee takes into the general election.
