Pollsters and reporters promised there’d be a pro-Democratic “blue wave” in the 2018 midterm elections. What we got instead was more like an aggressive ripple.
Democrats won a House majority with perhaps a ten-seat cushion. But the GOP also boosted its holdings in the Senate and held on to key governorships in hotly targeted races. It was hardly a blowout for either side, and one would be hard pressed to see this election cycle as a clear vindication of either party.
But that’s not going to stop certain members of our vaunted news media from bending over backward to explain that, when you think about it, the midterm elections this year represent a wave of pro-Democratic, anti-President Trump sentiment. Because straining hard to see proof of a “blue wave” is definitely something you need to do if there was indeed a wave.
“It is true that the House is the more likely chamber to flip in the first midterm of a president,” read POLITICO Playbook’s very lazy Wednesday morning analysis. “But, it is also the purest test of the president’s popularity. Everyone is up for re-election. The entire country voted, and Democrats won. Easily.”
Earlier, as the results of the election were coming in Tuesday evening, CNN’s Jim Acosta looked for the silver lining for Democrats, writing, “When the House (but not Senate) went to GOP under Obama in 2010, it was a big deal. If it switches back under Trump, also a big deal. You can call it a wave, a ripple or whatever. In fact, NYT called it a ‘wave’ for GOP in 2010.”
His CNN colleague Manu Raju also said, “Any way you slice it, taking control of the House is a very big deal and will change the course of the [White House]. Many Dems though believed they could have held the Senate to 52-48 – and they may ultimately do that if Arizona and Nevada flip.”
This is what salvaging the facts to save a narrative looks like. If there were actually a wave, the facts would speak for themselves.
Eight years ago, Republicans flipped a record 66 House seats, won five Senate seats, and seized 11 governorships from Democrats. Republicans even picked up roughly 675 state legislative seats. That’s why the New York Times and every other media outlet referred to that election cycle as a “wave.” The 2010 midterm election cycle was indisputably a Republican victory. That election cycle was a clear message to the Democratic Party, which ceded control of the House. Four years later, Republicans would add eight more Senate seats to the six they won in the 2010 midterms, allowing them to also take control of Congress’ upper chamber.
In contrast, Democrats are on pace to gain just over 30 net seats in the House. They’re also projected to pick up a net six governorships from the GOP. But they missed out on the biggest prizes (Florida, Georgia, Ohio) and lost possibly up to four Senate seats last night, pending outcomes in Arizona and Montana. That’s better than losing the House, but it’s not exactly a “blue wave.” It’s certainly not like what we saw in 2010.
