The results are in, and Hillary Clinton has won the Nevada Democratic caucus. Here’s a few brief thoughts:
Not a convincing victory
The media narrative seems to lean toward Clinton’s victory being a turning point in her campaign. At this stage in the race, winning the news cycle and getting a positive narrative is slightly more important than leading the delegate count. Still, this was only a close victory for Clinton, winning by fewer than 5 percentage points. It wasn’t a convincing win like Bernie Sanders’ 22-point landslide in New Hampshire.
This should have been a larger victory for Clinton. For a state the candidates haven’t spent much time campaigning in, it should have been a simple matter of being the most well-known candidate in the race. Clinton also won the state by 6 percentage points in 2008. It was the best day of the campaign so far for Clinton, but the results still made her nomination seem less inevitable. Expect Sanders to stay in the race for awhile longer.
Sanders running out of steam?
At the same time, it’s difficult to see a path to the nomination for Sanders. Looking ahead, Sanders doesn’t poll particularly well except in a handful of states. From what I can find, the only state where Sanders is expected to get a convincing win is Massachusetts. You can’t win the nomination if the only states you win by large margins are in New England.
Then again, Sanders is closing the gap nationally. Two weeks ago, Sanders was 15 points behind Clinton in the RealClearPolitics national average. Today, he’s closed the gap to fewer than 6 percentage points. Perhaps that national movement will lead to closer results in upcoming state contests.
What’s next?
While South Carolina Republicans vote in their primary Saturday, the state’s Democrats will vote in one week. Unless much changes between now and then, Clinton is expected to steamroll Sanders there. There have been 12 polls released on South Carolina since the New Hampshire primary, and Clinton leads all 12 by double digits.
After sweating out the Nevada race, Clinton will surely welcome a South Carolina victory that should be called as soon as the polls close.
Jason Russell is a commentary writer for the Washington Examiner.
