Dealing with the newly re-elected president of Egypt, Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, the Trump administration must balance U.S. policy to short and longer term interests. Doing so is not easy.
At one level, the U.S. has obvious short-term counterterrorism interests that are advanced by cooperation with Sisi’s government. Defined by his tenure as head of the Egyptian army and notionally pro-American by his time at U.S. and British military schools, Sisi has an open ear to U.S. counterterrorism concerns. He has also presided over a robust military campaign against ISIS and other terrorist groups operating on Egyptian soil.
Moreover, U.S. intelligence cooperation with Egypt’s GID intelligence service is on a par with the U.S.-Saudi intelligence relationship. While this relationship is not quite at the same level as the U.S. partnerships with the Israeli Mossad and Jordanian GID, it is very valuable nevertheless.
The U.S. also has an interest in seeing Sisi continue his ambitious effort to restructure Egypt’s stagnating economy and to foster closer relations with Israel and Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman. We must also be aware of Russia’s energetic effort to move Cairo out of the U.S. orbit and into its own mercantile-feudalist structure in the Middle East.
At the same time, however, the U.S. must work to prevent Sisi from turning himself into a new Hosni Mubarak. In other words, a pro-American authoritarian who tramples his people’s human rights and fosters terrorist recruitment. It’s no small concern.
Following the crackdown on Mohammed Morsi in 2013, I warned that the army’s aggressive authoritarianism would plant new seeds of Salafi extremism. That’s exactly what has happened. Today, operating out of the Sinai, ISIS and other terrorist groups are waging an insurgency against the Egyptian army and its supporters. And as we’ve seen in repeat terrorist attacks on Coptic Christians, Sufi Muslims and western airliners, the terrorists are determined, brutal and determined to displace Egyptian pluralism with theological absolutism.
But while this requires their facing the aggressive Egyptian military pressure that Sisi has unleashed against them, the Egyptian military is frequently blurring its targeting of terrorists and civilians. In turn, it is helping center the Salafi-Jihadist ideology of puritan resistance and motivating the next generation of terrorists.
What’s even more concerning though, is Sisi’s escalating crackdown on free speech, journalistic expression and peaceful political opposition. Thousands of critics of Sisi’s regime now languish in prison and thousands more face daily oppression by the security services.
Trump cannot afford to ignore this situation.
After all, it doesn’t simply risk Egypt’s long-term stability and prosperity, it delegitimizes the U.S. in the eyes of those it must win the favor of. Namely, young Sunni men who are susceptible to terrorist recruitment. By association of the close U.S-Egyptian alliance, Sisi’s policies undercut U.S. regional claims of being honest broker in the Middle East.
While this concern has broader regional elements, it fosters a populist anti-Americanism that limits the political flexibility of politicians from Beirut to Baghdad in dealing with us.
So how should Trump balance America’s competing interests in Egypt? By offering more carrots to Sisi alongside tough love. Avoiding the Obama administration’s error in alienating Sisi by cutting aid to his military, Trump should increase the already generous provision of U.S. aid to Sisi’s government, especially in areas focused on economic diversification and intelligence targeting. Although very different in nature, both those focuses would engender Sisi’s gratitude while enabling his government to push forwards its better policy priorities (intelligence targeting would help reduce civilian casualties in counterterrorism operations).
There are signs for hope here, Egypt’s economy has already increased its growth rate from under 2.2 percent in 2013 to 4.2 percent in 2017 and is may reach 6 percent in 2018.
At the same time, Trump should privately make clear his concerns about the negative ramifications of Sisi’s authoritarianism and the need for political liberty to coexist with counterterrorism strength. He can do so by raising the plight of specific political prisoners and the concern of what Egypt’s stability might look like twenty years from now, when its vast youth population reaches adulthood and lacks jobs.
Regardless, Trump cannot sit idle. Egypt will become an African economic powerhouse and a model for Sunni-Muslim stability. Or it will become a terrorist basket case.
