Russia does not want to go to war with the United States in the South China Sea. China does not want to go to war with NATO in the Baltic States.
These truths bear note in light of Beijing and Moscow’s latest effort to present their relationship as an evolving alliance. Holding a virtual meeting on Monday, Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin spoke of forging closer cooperation in international affairs. Xi described a commitment to “building a new type of international relations and a community with a shared future for mankind.”
What is this future, you ask?
Beijing’s Global Times propaganda newspaper gave one answer. It asserted, “Both countries agreed to uphold common values of humanity, including peace, development, fairness, justice, democracy, and freedom.”
Indeed.
That is, just as long as “democracy,” “freedom,” and “justice” exist under kleptocracy and the annihilation of politically and biologically impure citizens. And just as long as that definition of “peace” entails using the barrel of a gun to enforce the political subornation of all others. That China would offer these words while eviscerating its last democratic outpost, Hong Kong, is particularly absurd. Communist China claims its 100th anniversary testifies to a regime that serves the people. Reality testifies to the exact opposite.
This is not to say that the Sino-Russian alignment is a paper pretense. The two nations have conducted increasing joint military activity in recent years. Their cooperation in international forums is also escalating. (Ironically, in light of their aforementioned claims, this cooperation often takes the form of preventing United Nations human rights action.)
But cooperation does not alone define an alliance.
Beijing has been shocked by the shifting European political tenor, especially at EU and national parliamentary levels, toward its interests. A much-vaunted EU-China trade deal is now dead on arrival in the European Parliament, for example.
That trade deal’s death, or at least coma, came after members rejected its nonexistent safeguards against Uyghur forced labor. Angela Merkel hasn’t got her way. But in the context of Russia’s military threat to Europe, EU states are likely to look ill on any significantly boosted Sino-Russian military cooperation.
In the same way, Russia might occasionally harass U.S. warships in the South China Sea, but Putin doesn’t want to risk his fleet outside of Russia’s core interests. Putin also fears the impact of a rising China on his territorial south. The Russians have witnessed the aggression with which China has sought to absorb Indian territory. As China grows more economically and militarily powerful, Moscow will see rising potential for its own territory to face Chinese pressure.
Reflecting these strategic divergences, the two nations conduct intensive intelligence activity against one another. This activity is especially significant in the fields of human and cyber-related espionage. This spying reflects not only an ambition to gain useful information but also a deep mistrust. History also shapes political doubts. These two great powers were as much Cold War foes as they were partners. Beyond their titular kinship, Communist China and the Soviet Union had little ideological respect for one another.
So, yes, let’s watch closely to see how this relationship develops. But let’s do so with open eyes rather than inflated fear.
