According to the Ukrainian government, four of its soldiers were killed this week by fire from Russian-backed separatist units along the Donetsk front. Taken in the context of a Russian military buildup near Ukraine’s eastern border, the latest deaths have led the U.S. European Command to raise the watch level from possible crisis to potential imminent crisis.
A U.S. defense official told CBS News that the types of Russian military units near the Ukrainian border don’t correlate with the usual training exercises Moscow engages in on a periodic basis. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs Mark Milley spoke with Gen. Valery Gerasimov, Russia’s top military officer, on the escalation.
While the uptick in Ukrainian casualties is an abrupt change from the eight months of relative quiet along the front, the violence itself is not necessarily new. With the exception of the pitched battles in 2014 and 2015, the war between the Ukrainian military and the separatists has taken the form of a low-intensity conflict that occasionally bursts out into the open. Shelling and mortar fire across the 250 miles of trenches is hell for the residents living in the area, but it’s almost routine for the troops who are manned on both sides of the line.
Back in Washington, the renewed flare-up of violence in Ukraine is being treated as a test of the new Biden administration’s strength. The wily and masterful Vladimir Putin, so goes the logic, is poking President Joe Biden in the eye in order to gauge his response and determine whether Washington under the new administration is as tough on Russia as Biden says he is. There are alternative explanations for the violence, of course. The separatists and their Russian backers could be attempting to observe the tactical proficiency and response time of Ukrainian units. But if Moscow is indeed trying to see how much it can get away with, the Biden administration would be wise not to take the bait. Ultimately, Ukraine is a European problem that should be managed by the European Union. If the United States is a player in this conflict, it’s a tertiary one.
This may come as a shock to those in Washington who like to see every global problem as an American solution. Regardless, the geopolitics of the Ukraine issue favors Russia, an immediate neighbor country whose security interests in the region surpass Washington’s own. Because Moscow has more at stake in Ukraine, it’s willing to spend more and sacrifice more — or at least more than America is willing to spend and sacrifice.
Throughout Ukraine’s seven-year conflict, Moscow has remained steadfast behind its proxies. When Kyiv was threatening to scatter separatist units in the east, Moscow deployed its own troops and hardware into the field, not only to stall Ukraine’s advance but to enable its own offensive against the Ukrainian army. When the U.S. sent Ukraine military assistance, Russia responded by delivering additional support to the separatists. The end result was largely a draw, in which the lines are still and forces on both sides consolidate their positions.
To the U.S., Ukraine is an ex-Soviet democracy at the unfortunate mercy of its larger and more powerful neighbor. To Russia, however, Ukraine is and very much remains a crown jewel too important to give up. A Western-aligned Ukraine right on Russia’s doorstep is simply unfathomable for Russian policymakers.
We may like to believe that the world has progressed beyond the point of might makes right, where the weak (or at least weaker) have as much of an ability to exercise free will as the strong. But geopolitics is still very much a brute sport dominated by selfish interests. An independent Ukraine, however desirable to us, is not something that would serve Russia’s interests. No amount of radars or anti-tank missiles that the U.S. sends to Kyiv will change that.
Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.
