Republicans have been facing a tough year in 2020. But could it be a better-than-expected year for Republican women?
The 2018 midterm elections were labeled “The Year of the Woman 2.0” and saw a sharp uptick in the number of women in elected offices at the federal and state levels. “The Squad” was born, and even new, non-Squad members, such as Rep. Katie Porter and Rep. Lauren Underwood, found themselves in the spotlight through viral moments in congressional hearings and features in the pages of glossy magazines.
Yet, in a cruel twist, even as Congress came closer to gender parity, that election also saw the number of Republican women in Congress dwindle. Today, only 22 members of Congress are Republican women, a sharp decline from where things stood before the midterm elections.
In response to hitting this low-water mark, there was growing interest among GOP circles in turning this tide and identifying, recruiting, training, and funding female Republican candidates. Shortly after the midterms, Rep. Elise Stefanik launched Elevate PAC, her leadership PAC aimed at bolstering the ranks of Republican women in the House. They joined the efforts of a host of other existing Republican women’s groups, such as VIEW PAC, and though there was some initial reluctance on the part of some Republican leaders to embrace the efforts, it was quickly clear that this would need to be a priority for the party.
This coming fall, given the weak economy and the coronavirus pandemic, the overall political environment does not look much better for the GOP than it did in 2018, complicating the goal of boosting those numbers. On the Senate side, things are particularly precarious. Of the nine Republican women in the Senate, four face tough races this year, such as Sen. Susan Collins of Maine and Sen. Martha McSally of Arizona. (One bright spot for Republican women on the Senate side: Former Rep. Cynthia Lummis currently leads in fundraising in the race for Wyoming’s open Senate seat, making this a likely pickup.)
Slightly rosier news comes on the House side. Though the House race picture for Republicans seems daunting as well, Republicans are unlikely to end with fewer women in that chamber than they started with. While some of the remaining Republican women in the House have announced they will not seek reelection in 2020, such as Alabama Rep. Martha Roby and Indiana Rep. Susan Brooks, most incumbent Republican women in the House are in safe seats.
Looking at the numbers, around a dozen “safe Republican” seats are either held by incumbent women or saw a Republican woman win the primary this year, such as Lisa McClain in Michigan or Mary Miller in Illinois, both of who are very likely to be sworn in come next January. Ensuring women are winning primaries for safe seats is critical for creating a solid foundation upon which to boost numbers, and simply keeping all those “safe” districts would roughly keep the number of Republican women in the House right about where it is now.
Then, there are the opportunities to add to the ranks. Many Republican women have already won primaries in seats listed as “toss-ups,” such as Ashley Hinson in Iowa and Nancy Mace in South Carolina. There are a number of primaries that have not yet been held or conclusively decided in which there is a winnable seat at stake, such as Oklahoma’s 5th Congressional District, where GOP state Sen. Stephanie Bice is in a runoff for the nomination to take on Democratic Rep. Kendra Horn in the fall. The odds are decent that the House Republican Conference will have at least as many women in it come 2021 as it has today and might even grow their numbers if a few of these toss-ups break their way.
Barring a miracle, it is highly unlikely anyone will look at 2020 and deem it “the year of the Republican woman.” But the work of turning the tide will take many cycles and, at some point, will require a wave or two to break the GOP’s way. (If Democrats take the White House in 2020, it is possible 2022 will offer Republicans just such a wave.) At the moment, the data point to a likely scenario of holding serve or making very modest gains in the House for Republican women. In the face of an enormously challenging political environment, even small progress is meaningful.
