Watching the news, you might think that President Trump’s withdrawal from the Iran nuclear agreement was a harbinger of war with the Islamic Republic of Iran. It isn’t.
Although Trump’s language in his speech on Tuesday was decidedly tough, his functional policy here seems determined to chart a path that mitigates the risk of conflict. While U.S. sanctions are now being reintroduced against Iran, Trump is also giving Iran room to breathe by allowing European companies to continue their dealings in Iran. In its fact sheet on the agreement, the White House noted, “Those doing business in Iran will be provided a period of time to allow them to wind down operations in or business involving Iran.”
This is a very thinly veiled message to European companies that they will not face immediate U.S. sanctions if they continue to do business with Iran. And while the White House warned of serious consequences if these companies continue doing business indefinitely, there was no time limit given to them. I suspect that European leaders will also have been told that if the U.S. does decide to sanction these companies, it will give them ample warning before doing so.
That speaks to Trump’s desire — the right one, in my view — to push the European Union towards a better deal with Iran without alienating them.
The olive branch seems to be paying dividends. While the Europeans have publicly lamented Trump’s decision, on Wednesday, Trump’s national security adviser, John Bolton told CBS that he was working hard with British, French, and German governments to build a negotiating baseline with which to improve the nuclear agreement. And immediately following Trump’s speech on Tuesday, President Emmanuel Macron of France tweeted his commitment to addressing Trump’s concerns over Iran. Macron, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and British Prime Minister Theresa May echoed this sentiment in a joint statement released on Tuesday.
Of course, this isn’t just about the Europeans. It’s also about Iran. After all, Trump is fully aware that if he sanctions European companies doing business in Iran without first attempting to get a better deal, he won’t just burn the Europeans away from getting that better deal, he’ll empower the Iranian hardliners against the more moderate elements in Tehran. The key here must be to strengthen the latter rather than feeding the aggression of the former.
At present at least, Trump’s policy seems calibrated for doing just that.
