British government minister Sajid Javid released his nation’s updated counter-terrorism strategy on Monday. Titled “Contest,” it builds on previous efforts but with greater urgency, capability and aggression.
Contest starts by identifying the significant terrorist threat facing the U.K.
“Despite action by a global coalition to reduce its territory and infrastructure,” the report authors note, “Daesh’s [another term for the Islamic State/ISIS] actions and propaganda mean it remains the most significant terrorist threat we face today. That said, Al Qaeda continues to pose a persistent threat to the West and domestically we also face an increasing threat from extreme right-wing terrorism as well as a persistent risk from Northern Ireland related terrorism.”
The point is well made. ISIS might have lost much of its territory, al Qaeda might have lost much of its leadership and Northern Ireland might be more stable than during the troubles, but each of these three groups still threaten U.K. security.
That said, Contest makes clear that the major terrorist threat continues to be rooted in Salafi jihadist Islamic terrorism. “MI5 and Counter-Terrorism Policing have foiled 25 Islamist plots since June 2013, 12 of which have been since March 2017, and since 2017 have disrupted four extreme right-wing plots.” Contest notes that there are more than 500 terrorism investigations against 3,000 individuals underway in Britain. Note that effective average of 6 individuals per each terrorist plot. It speaks to the fact that some of these plots involve far more than 6 individuals and if actuated, would lead to multi-digit casualties.
So what does the British government intend to do about the growing threat?
To start, Contest will bring more prosecutions at earlier stages of terrorist plots. Recognizing the shorter cycle between radicalization and attack plotting, the government says it will establish new offenses — such as one targeting multiple viewings of extremist material online — and tougher sentencing guidelines. While there are tensions with the U.S. on this issue of free speech and security, it’s important to note that U.S. and U.K. counter-terrorism strategies aren’t one and the same.
While British authorities have far more investigative leeway than their U.S. counterparts in conducting surveillance against suspects, British courts also impose comparatively shorter custodial sentences than U.S. courts. That poses a major challenge to Britain’s MI5 domestic security service in that it requires human surveillance teams to monitor a large number of high-risk offenders who have been released from prison after serving relatively short sentences. MI5 believes that if those offenders were forced to spend longer in prison, fewer would reoffend and MI5 would have fewer targets to monitor.
Contest also pledges to strengthen Britain’s new National Digital Exploitation Service and thus provide for rapid investigations into terrorist data systems. Javid’s report notes that the NDES’ work is crucial because “the typical terrorist investigation involves approximately ten terabytes of material, only a fraction of which can currently be assessed before a decision is required on whether or not to charge an individual.” It is worth noting here that the U.S. has provided critical support for U.K. cyberdefense and strike capabilities.
Another complicated area is deciding what to do about those fighting with ISIS and al Qaeda globally. Contest notes that “Many of the most dangerous individuals remain overseas,” thus giving the U.K. an opportunity to target these individuals on the battlefield before they can return home to conduct violent attacks. For those who do make it back to the U.K., the British government has other plans. “Where appropriate,” Contest explains, “we will also use nationality and immigration powers to deprive individuals of their British citizenship and to exclude foreign nationals from the U.K. whose presence here would not be conducive to the public good.”
What else is the U.K. doing?
Well, for one, the U.K. plans to build on its intelligence-policing-military fusion model of integrating national assets in a way that allows for the resumption of security following an attack. Resource levels aside, this approach sets the U.K. positively apart from other nations’ counter-terrorism capabilities.
Contest also declares Britain’s recent “[$2.6 billion] of new investment in the capability of [military] Special Forces, which allows us to strike terrorists wherever they are in the world.” These capabilities join a new British unit seemingly designed to replicate the FBI’s Critical Incident Response Group. The unit will provide a “new flexible cadre of UK experts who can be deployed when and where they are needed to provide additional rapid expertise overseas.”
Regardless, it’s clear both that Britain is imposing better new security but that its counter-terrorism situation will face continued challenge.
