The construction of Gazprom’s now-infamous Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline has been completed. The project’s completion nearly perfectly coincided with the first anniversary of Alexei Navalny’s poisoning by the Kremlin, from which he only narrowly escaped death by the Novichok nerve agent. The connection between these two issues is clear, yet some in Europe and the United States can’t, or don’t, want to see it.
In the immediate aftermath of Navalny’s poisoning a year ago, Western democracies responded with a barrage of harsh statements condemning the attempted murder of the Russian opposition leader and the illegal use of chemical weapons by the Russian state. The West issued warnings and threats on the impending consequences for the Kremlin and Russian President Vladimir Putin. And yet, a year later, the posture of the Russian president is only strengthened, emboldening him to continue domestic repression and violence worldwide.
The Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Putin’s most toxic and divisive geopolitical project to date, gifted by the West, has become a major boost to his regime. To those of us fighting for democracy and human rights in Russia, it seems surreal. The passionate rhetoric of Western leaders during Navalny’s medically induced coma has not amounted to much action. Instead, it was followed by the U.S. and German approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and their silence in response to Putin’s domestic crackdown on political dissent and extraterritorial targeting of dissidents.
In mid-September 2020, the overwhelming majority of the European Parliament supported a resolution on the poisoning of Alexei Navalny that urged EU institutions and member states to work together to stop the construction of Nord Stream 2 as punishment for the Kremlin’s actions. Fast forward to September 2021. Despite extensive investigations conducted by Western security agencies implicating Russia in Navalny’s poisoning and the Kremlin’s subsequent repressive and brutal Lukashenka-style crackdown and imprisonment of Russian opposition members, the pipeline was allowed to be completed.
The reality is that Nord Stream 2 is an unnecessary project with the main goal of sustaining the corrupt, oppressive, and belligerent politics of Putin’s regime through the weaponization of energy. Currently, the total capacity of outgoing gas export pipelines from Russia to Europe via Ukraine exceeds 300 billion cubic meters per year. The maximum amount of gas ever shipped, according to Gazprom data, is just over 240 billion cubic meters per year. Supporters of Nord Stream 2 argued they needed a greater capacity to ship Russian gas to Europe. In reality, there was no problem with transporting Russian gas to Europe.
We all know the true purpose of the pipeline: not to boost capacity (as promised to outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel and other Western leaders) but to shut down the gas transit through Ukraine, which Putin openly bragged about at the St. Petersburg economic forum in June. Many EU member states that see through Putin’s strategy have spoken out against how Putin will weaponize Nord Stream 2 to pursue his gas pipeline politics. However, Germany, the main supporter of Nord Stream 2 and the most economically powerful EU member, remains tone-deaf to their arguments.
Gazprom’s recent gas market manipulation is only a foreshadowing of what’s to come for Europe with its increased dependence on Russian gas shipments. Between July and September, European gas prices skyrocketed to more than $1,000 per thousand cubic meters for the first time in history as a direct result of Gazprom’s market manipulation. The Russian gas monopoly ignored calls by European consumers to increase gas supply, while at the same time, it depleted precious gas storage that is needed during frigid winter months and accelerated volatility in the market amid surging demand. It is a purposeful effort to increase dependency on Russian gas by creating an artificial gas crisis this winter that it will argue makes operationalizing Nord Stream 2 imperative for Europe.
These actions by Gazprom should be investigated for possible market manipulation. They should also give Germans a glimpse of what awaits them should they try to curb Putin’s unlawful, murderous, and aggressive policies at home and abroad. Putin will have no qualms about withholding gas or shutting off the tap entirely if Germany or the European Union act to hold him accountable for his crimes. Germany’s current approach to Russia is not only intellectually inconsistent and morally bankrupt but also dangerous.
Other dangerous misconceptions are that the West can somehow move its Russia policy to the back burner to address China or that Putin seeks a “stable and predictable” relationship with the West. Putin sees inaction as a sign of weakness and a green light to expand his global malign campaigns. If Nord Stream 2 becomes operational after all Putin has done at home and abroad, we should expect more crackdowns on civil and political rights and liberties in Russia, more political prisoners, and more independent media and civil society organizations declared “undesired” or “foreign agents.” Expect more aggression against Ukraine beyond the likely bypassing of Ukrainian gas transit — regardless of what the Biden and Merkel administrations may have agreed. Finally, expect record gas prices for European consumers similar to what we have witnessed since July.
Europe must reverse its growing dependence on Russian gas. If Putin’s crackdown on human rights at home and assassinations abroad is not enough to induce Germany to take action, maybe extreme gas prices will. Both are inevitable outcomes if Nord Stream 2 becomes operational — and both are part of an orchestrated effort to undermine the West.
Vladimir Milov is a senior adviser to Alexei Navalny.
