Presenting her Brexit withdrawal plan to her Cabinet on Wednesday, British Prime Minister Theresa May will demand universal support or immediate resignation. That is a necessity under Britain’s tradition of collective Cabinet responsibility.
Yet even if the Cabinet agrees May’s plan which it is likely to do — May’s major battle will come in the House of Commons. Because it is far from clear that May can command enough votes to see her agreement entered into law and thus applied as the framework by which Britain leaves the European Union next March. The challenge to the Conservative leader comes from three key areas.
First off, there are those Conservative MP’s who believe May has given too much away to the EU in return for too little. Led by the deeply euro-skeptic former foreign minister, Boris Johnson, and articulate backbencher, Jacob Rees-Mogg, these MPs have a good base of support in the Conservative Party at large. And they want a far more dramatic split from the EU than that which May’s plan will likely offer. In specific terms, where May is likely to propose a post-Brexit arrangement that allows Britain effective access to the EU customs market, euro-skeptic MPs want a deal in which Britain totally withdraws from the market and then negotiates its own independent trading rules. Boris Johnson has already said that any customs-union-retained deal should be “utterly unacceptable to anyone who believes in democracy.”
That speaks to a larger philosophical point: Johnson and co. fear that any deal which keeps Britain in the customs union will degrade their ability to make more beneficial trade deals with non-EU nations and ultimately, with the EU itself. Such a reality, they believe, would be tantamount to a collapse of British sovereignty. It is highly possible that these MPs may now band together in an effort to call a leadership contest that might feasibly remove Theresa May from the prime minister’s office and residence at 10 Downing Street. If that contest comes, expect either Johnson or Rees-Mogg to stand.
Next up, there are the opposition Labour Party MPs under leader, Jeremy Corbyn. The Corbyn inner circle believe they can take advantage from a euro-skeptic Conservative rebellion and thus see May removed from office. This circumstance, they believe, will allow them to build public pressure in favor of a new general election that might see Labour enter power. Still, Corbyn faces a real danger here if he is seen to overplay his hand. The opinion polls suggest that the Conservatives have a slight lead over Labour at present. But May’s Brexit deal is seen as at least feasible, the Conservatives should rise in the polls. That’s because most voters had witnessed May’s recent negotiating struggles and had come to expect a poor deal. Anything better would thus be in her favor.
Finally, there are those MP’s from all four of the major political parties who want Britain to remain in the EU. These MPs will push hard to see May’s proposed deal defeated in the House of Commons and will even band together with the euro-skeptics to do so. For this bloc of parliamentarians the objective is a second referendum vote that sees the original 2016 Brexit vote overturned. While May has ruled out such an eventuality, if her deal is seen as a fudge of weakness, this bloc will be empowered.
In short, while Theresa May has won a big victory in Brussels, her battle at home is now reaching its defining showdown.
