If this week’s Florida primaries had occurred in the political environment of last decade, before the Tea Party, before President Trump, and before the #Resistance, it’s obvious what would have happened.
Democrats would have nominated Gwen Graham, a member of Congress from a swing district whose father was a U.S. senator, and who had the backing of the state party’s donor base. Republicans would have nominated Adam Putnam, a statewide elected official who was cozy with Florida’s big business lobby, including Big Sugar and the Chamber of Commerce.
But these are far more interesting times, and both parties nominated the insurgent candidate. Republicans nominated conservative congressman Ron DeSantis, who was endorsed by Trump. Democrats nominated Tallahassee’s left-wing mayor, Andrew Gillum, who was endorsed by Bernie Sanders.
Those endorsements tell the story. Gillum has run a campaign to bring joy to the hearts of the militant Left: “Medicare for all,” marijuana legalization, higher corporate taxes, abolition of ICE, impeachment of Trump, and massive increases in school spending. Funded by liberal billionaires Tom Steyer, George Soros, and some dark-money PACs, he was the most ideological candidate in the race.
In echoes of the GOP’s 2010 Tea Party eruption, Gillum is, along with the likes of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, leading an anti-establishment liberal rebellion within his party. If not the Democrat of the future, Gillum is at least the Democrat of 2018.
DeSantis similarly represents a potential wave of his party. Trump, for better or for worse, defines the GOP these days. DeSantis has the president’s support, and they’ve known each other for years through Trump’s Florida ties. DeSantis has enthusiastically embraced some aspects of Trumpism (in one campaign ad, he helped his daughter build “The Wall” out of blocks), while also espousing movement conservatism.
DeSantis has opposed Trump on federal overspending and on Russian sanctions. He has opposed his state’s business lobby on sugar subsidies and other corporate welfare. In sum, DeSantis could be the blend of Trumpist populism and conservatives’ free-market, small-government philosophy.
A Trumpy conservative against a liberal crusader in the swingiest swing state, which was carried by Bush, then Obama, then Trump, is the most important contest to watch in 2018.
The first key for Republicans will be not blowing off Gillum because of his ideological extremism. It’s easy to laugh and say Democrats blew their chance by deviating too far from the center. But in 2010, Republicans didn’t lose races by veering from the center. Consider how Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., was considered too conservative to win, causing the party establishment to line up behind Charlie Crist in that primary.
The bomb-throwing Democratic socialism of Gillum and Ocasio-Cortez injects serious energy into the liberal base, just as the Tea Party woke up a despondent conservative base. Gillum will enjoy plenty of national money, and plenty of liberal billionaire money. He’ll benefit from volunteers set afire by the ideological purity of his platform, trying to keep the Bernie flame alive.
The second key will be keeping the best of Trump, a populist tone that includes and appeals to the working class, while avoiding the worst of Trump, such as uncouth comments, pettiness, and self-enrichment.
Florida is always the state to watch. Tuesday’s results, and the shifting tides of American politics, make its choice of governor this fall that much more portentous.
