The anti-American rhetoric coming out of Iran is no surprise given their history of physical attacks on U.S. forces and shipping vessels, the shooting down of a U.S. reconnaissance drone in international airspace, and their repeated cyberattacks aimed at disrupting our public and private sector operations here at home.
The chant “death to America” has proven to be more than just a popular slogan in Iran, it’s become their way of life. That’s why President Trump’s announcement that he ordered the military to execute an airstrike last Friday that killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani was so significant. But where do we go from here, and what happens next?
As retired Gen. David Petraeus said in an appearance on Face the Nation over the weekend, “it’s impossible to overstate the significance of the attack” that took out Soleimani. “This is bigger than bin Laden. It’s bigger than Baghdadi. This is the equivalent in U.S. terms of the CIA director, [U.S. Central Command] commander, [Joint Special Operations Command] commander, and presidential envoy for the region in Iran — and the most powerful figure in Iran.”
Since 2003, Soleimani is responsible for the deaths of 603 U.S. service members in Iraq, and the most recent intelligence indicated that he was in Baghdad to plot additional attacks on Americans with Iranian-backed militias. In other words, he wasn’t in Iraq as a tourist or diplomat, but rather as a terrorist — an anti-American terrorist.
I’m somewhat familiar with some of the damage that Iranian-backed militias inflicted on U.S. forces in Iraq. From 2007-2010, I deployed to Baghdad 14 times as a civilian assigned to a special economic task force under the Office of the Secretary of Defense, where we worked alongside Petraeus and his team when he was Multi-National Force – Iraq commanding general. And during that time, especially during spring 2008, Victory Base Complex and the Green Zone were under constant rocket and mortar attack.
Who launched those attacks? Iranian-backed militias.
But with the death of Soleimani, what happens now? We know that a few days ago, a U.S. government website was hacked with the message, “This is message from Islamic Republic of Iran.” The question remains whether or not Iran will launch more substantive cyberattacks in the United States — a point that I discussed with Gen. Petraeus in a brief email exchange. Will Iran target significant infrastructure or other assets through cyber operations?
It’s also very possible that Iran chooses to launch a physical attack against U.S. service members or American allies — however, even this scenario is hard to predict, given that their top military commander and chief strategist is now dead. It would lead to a battle that they could never win.
With regard to a response from an Iranian attack, there are several options that Trump could consider.
We could launch a cyberattack targeting Iranian government computers, crippling their IT infrastructure. We could launch a strategic attack on their oil refineries as Sen. Lindsey Graham has openly suggested. We can apply additional sanctions to further cripple their economy, or we could apply a combination of all three.
The Iranian economy is already suffering from high inflation, and a full-scale battle against the U.S. would only worsen their delicate economic situation. “The people are demonstrating on the streets in unprecedented numbers against the economic deprivation, the lack of employment opportunities, and the plummeting of their quality of life,” Petraeus said on Face the Nation. “They care about themselves and their families, and they’re not happy [with the Iranian regime].”
Any physical attack against the U.S. or our allies will be met with a forceful response from the world’s strongest military armed with the most advanced weaponry known to mankind.
With Trump in charge, the days of a muted response are over. As president, Trump has a responsibility to protect Americans, both at home and abroad. His decision to take out Soleimani was the right thing to do. For anyone to suggest that such an attack was ill-conceived, I’d say we have 603 reasons that justify Friday’s action.
President Theodore Roosevelt said to “speak softly and carry a big stick.” Trump has shown us that sometimes, we can speak loudly too.
Mark Vargas (@Mark Vargas) is a tech entrepreneur, advisor and contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. From 2007-2010, he served as a civilian within the Office of the Secretary of Defense on a special task force in Iraq.
