The killing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a big win for America and humanity. Still, ISIS will remain a potent threat, and will seek short term revenge.
Even as ISIS’ new leader — who may have to fight colleagues to attain his dominion — struggles to assume authority as Baghdadi’s replacement, the group’s operations officers will seek short term retribution. This threat, both directed and inspired in nature, should not be discounted as idle.
While intelligence efforts, including particular boutique operations by the CIA and its British counterpart, SIS, have disrupted numerous attacks in the vein of the November 2015 Paris strikes, ISIS operatives embrace operational security tactics to avoid detection. As a result, ISIS retains an ability to infiltrate operatives into Europe and the United States. The question is whether those operatives currently in Europe are known or unknown to counterterrorism services.
ISIS also offers a continuing threat of inspired attacks. Social malcontents are especially susceptible to ISIS’ offering of what it sells as a purposeful and glorious cause. And for these losers, the perverse but potent appeal of overnight mass recognition adds a further catalyst towards taking up the cause. ISIS will almost certainly use Baghdadi’s demise as a rallying cry for new attacks.
A revenge attack may not follow. But western security services will operate intense shift schedules for the next two weeks.
