As chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee during the 2004 and 2006 cycles, I know a little bit about dealing with an uncertain political environment and making sure your opponents are on defense.
In 2006, we were able to save at least 20 seats with strategic decisions made in the final weeks of the campaign by following the advice of George Washington: “Offensive operations, often times, is the surest, if not the only … means of defence.”
Republicans have controlled Washington for the past two years. And as history tells us the first midterm for a president is always dangerous for his party in Congress. While the president and members of Congress have worked hard to put policies in place to grow the economy, that alone isn’t enough. Candidates must also raise money and draw sharp contrasts with their opponents in order to win competitive races.
Midterm elections are very tough, and indicators show Republicans face a very difficult atmosphere — one that many incumbents haven’t seen because they were elected after 2010. In order to maintain their majority, Republicans will need to be smart, creative, and perhaps most importantly, aggressive.
As I look at the political players in 2018, I believe there has been no political group smarter, more creative, or more aggressive than the Congressional Leadership Fund. CLF recognized that if Republicans were to have a chance, it would have to go on offense early, set the terms of each race, employ an aggressive ground game and force Democrats to go on the defensive before they could define themselves.
With a massive haul of more than $130 million raised, CLF was able to begin executing its strategy last year by beginning its national field program, and in early August by dropping attack ads in 14 districts without warning. This surprise August strategy forced Democratic candidates and outside groups to defend themselves on the air before they could even truly introduce themselves to voters in a dozen congressional districts. In addition, CLF has opened 40 field offices and made over 25 million voter contacts already.
Consider the race in Kentucky’s 6th District, where Democrat Amy McGrath is challenging incumbent Republican Rep. Andy Barr. After her primary victory in May, very few people viewed McGrath as a liberal. In early June, polling showed that McGrath led Barr, 51 to 38 percent.
But before McGrath could really set the terms in the general election, CLF jumped into that race in August and ran six ads over the course of a month, highlighting her liberal positions on immigration, taxes, liberal handouts, and the Iranian nuclear deal.
The results were staggering. An early September poll showed Barr leading 49 percent to 45 percent. Perhaps more important were the numbers showing that McGrath’s net favorability rating had dramatically fallen, from plus-39 to just plus-11, and that 66 percent of those polled now believed that she was a liberal.
New data in Ohio’s 1st District shows a similar trajectory. After initially being locked in a tie race in late August, Rep. Steve Chabot now leads Democrat Aftab Pureval by 7 points. Pureval’s negatives have surged 16 points overall, and they have doubled with independents.
How did this happen? In August, CLF began television and digital advertising highlighting Aftab Pureval’s hypocritical D.C. work history, his liberal positions and the ongoing investigation into his campaign.
In both of these races, CLF’s ground team has been knocking doors since last year as part of their field program.
As a result of this early, aggressive approach from CLF, Democrats have had to respond to these attacks by spending perhaps earlier than they might have otherwise.
Democrats like Amy McGrath, Aftab Pureval in Ohio, Anthony Brindisi in New York, and Gil Cisneros in California are being forced to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars just to keep up with the pace of CLF’s early attacks. That is money that Democrats certainly would have rather spent defining themselves in September and October.
CLF made the bet that if Republicans are going to hold the House, they would have to go in early to win in November. And CLF backed that bet up with serious resources, spending more than the combined spending the Democratic Campaign Congressional Committee and the Democrat-controlled House Majority PAC in August to prevent Democrats from running their races on their own terms.
Republicans still face an uncertain political environment. But if they do indeed maintain the majority this November, they will have the Congressional Leadership Fund’s smart and aggressive strategy to thank.
Former Rep. Thomas M. Reynolds served as NRCC chairman from 2003-2006 and is a member of American Action Network’s Board of Directors and is a senior policy adviser at Holland & Knight.
