House Speaker Paul Ryan’s retirement announcement last week has yet to ignite what would have typically become intense jockeying among lawmakers to succeed him at the helm of the party.
Ryan told lawmakers Wednesday he plans to finish his term and remain speaker, eliminating the need for immediate leadership elections.
Republicans are also waiting to see if they hold onto the House majority in November, which will determine whether they need to pick a new speaker or minority leader.
[Also read: Paul Ryan is dealing a titanic blow to House Republicans]
The dynamic means the fight for leadership is poised to simmer behind the scenes for the next few months, allowing lawmakers to quietly lobby for support among rank-and-file without any official announcement.
As is typical, the leading contenders to replace Ryan are his top lieutenants, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., and Majority Whip Steve Scalise, R-La. House Freedom Caucus co-founder Jim Jordan confirmed last Friday he is considering a run to replace Paul Ryan as House speaker.
“Paul Ryan’s the speaker. There is no speaker’s race. If and when there is, I’m open to running,” Jordan, an Ohio Republican, told the Washington Examiner.
McCarthy allies on Thursday urged Ryan to quit early so an immediate successor can be elected.
Ryan, hours later, rejected the idea, arguing the House GOP needs a stable, intact leadership team to lead it into the midterm elections. Ryan said he has helped bring in more fundraising dollars for the party than any speaker in history.
“There is nobody who’s come close to being able to raise the kinds of funds I have, and still can raise for this majority,” Ryan said.
In the meantime, McCarthy and Scalise are likely to hang onto their leading positions unless the GOP fares poorly in the November elections, or loses the majority, which will likely generate calls for more drastic changes at the party helm.
“It’s too early to tell,” veteran member Tom Cole, R-Okla., told the Washington Examiner, when asked about the state of the leadership race. “A lot will be shaped by what happens in November. There is a big difference between minority leader and speaker.”
Conservative lawmakers told the Washington Examiner their support will hinge on what candidates pledge to do, as opposed to what they have accomplished.
That could help McCarthy, who withdrew his name from the speaker’s race in 2015 after bungling a key television interview, which led Republicans to question his ability to be the party’s top messenger.
When Ryan stepped in after McCarthy to run for speaker, Republicans viewed him as a very capable messenger, but to win over conservatives, he had to pledge to include them in the legislating process.
Ryan followed through in many cases, including them on tax reform and Obamacare repeal legislation, pleasing conservatives who have longed for a seat at the bill-writing table.
But in the most recent spending measure, which topped $1.3 billion and busted federally mandated budget caps, only top bipartisan leaders and the president made the key decisions.
The bill caused significant conservative backlash and is now poised to weigh heavily on the upcoming leadership fight.
“So many members have been disenfranchised by decisions being made in a closed room with maybe five people and some staff,” Rep. Steve King, R-Iowa, said. “I’m not focused so much on a replacement for Paul Ryan as I am on the process we need to construct.”
Some lawmakers believe Scalise has the edge. Members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus view him more favorably than McCarthy. And Scalise is a past chairman of the conservative Republican Study Committee, the House GOP’s largest political faction. Scalise said he’ll defer to McCarthy, unless McCarthy comes up short of the needed votes.
Cole said an outsider candidate is possible and is likely to be someone who can control a large faction of votes.
“You could always get a Texas candidate, given the size of that delegation,” Cole said.
