United Kingdom Prime Minister Theresa May’s decision to call a snap general election on June 8 is a necessary move to solidify her negotiating position for Brexit. But it’s not without risks.
May announced her plans to seek a June 8 general election on Tuesday morning in a press conference outside No. 10 Downing Street. She justified her decision by citing division in Westminster and highlighting attempts to sabotage Brexit by the Labour Party, Liberal Democrats, the Scottish National Party, and the unelected House of Lords.
Silencing these opposition forces with a convincing election victory would certainly make things easier for May’s Conservative government. Improving on the current 12 seat majority would insulate the government from any anti-Brexit insurgencies, not to mention strengthen the government’s ability to pass the rest of its legislative agenda. More importantly, a strong mandate from the public would finally put an end to the constant claims that voters were tricked into supporting Brexit.
And with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s complete failure as an opposition leader, a Conservative victory seems almost assured. According to the latest YouGov poll, the Conservatives currently lead Labour by 21 percentage points (with 44 percent of the vote compared to 23 percent). Figures for preferred prime minister are even worse for Labour, with May leading Corbyn 50 percent to 14 percent.
With these figures, May would have been mad not to call an election.
But this is no ordinary election. It will be fought over Brexit, and the unofficial opposition will be the Brussels bureaucrats who have incessantly attempted to undermine the U.K.’s negotiating position since the referendum last June.
Led by the likes of the European Parliament’s lead Brexit negotiator, Guy Verhofstadt, and President of the European Council Donald Tusk, the European Union has done everything from proposing a $50 billion exit fee, to suggesting Spain should have a veto over any future trade relationship involving the U.K. territory of Gibraltar.
No doubt some of these announcements were simply ploys to enter the negotiations with the upper hand. But they also appear to be based on the persistent delusions that: A, U.K. voters regret their decision to support Brexit; and B, if enough pressure is brought to bear they might ask for it to be reversed. Guy Verhofstadt has said he expects a future U.K. government to rejoin the EU.
According to May, Brexit is now irreversible. But the EU has never been afraid to violate its own rules for the purpose of self-preservation.
A comfortable victory for May’s Conservative government is the only sure way to put an end to these delusions. May knows this, which is why she has said the early election is “necessary to secure the strong and stable leadership the country needs to see us through Brexit and beyond.”
Nevertheless, as Nate Silver has pointed out, U.K. election polls are notoriously unreliable. Counting all elections since 1979, the polls this far out from the election have been wrong by an average of 6 points. Such a discrepancy might not mean a Labour victory, but it could weaken May’s mandate and undermine the strength of her negotiating position.
This election may also create future problems for the union between Scotland and the rest of the U.K.
The SNP have been clamoring for a second Scottish independence referendum since Scottish voters voted in favor of remaining in the EU last June. So far, May has been able to resist these calls by pointing out that Scotland had an independence referendum as recently as 2014.
But the SNP are sure to make independence the centerpiece of their election campaign. And if they are able to repeat their stunning success from 2015 — when they won 54 of the 59 House of Commons seats in Scotland — then calls for a second independence referendum could be impossible for May to resist.
This snap election was the right decision, but it’s not without its risks.
Patrick Hannaford (@PatHannaford) is a writer from Australia.
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