You may have forgotten by now, but Starbucks billionaire Howard Schultz has spent this year trying to run for president. Unsurprisingly, his attempt at being an independent candidate was a dud. And now he’s made it official that he isn’t going to run.
Viewed on its own, this doesn’t really affect the 2020 race one iota. While some pundits speculated that a strong Schultz candidacy could absorb anti-Trump votes, thus inadvertently boosting his reelection prospects, his lack of actual support means that his leaving the race doesn’t really matter.
But the mere fact that his candidacy never took off despite unlimited funds to get his message out suggests that the environment is not very ripe for for an independent challenger as a result of the strong anti-Trump sentiment.
This is something that Schultz highlighted in his letter explaining his decision, something perhaps discovered through internal polling.
Schultz wrote that “not enough people today are willing to consider backing an independent candidate because they fear doing so might lead to re-electing a uniquely dangerous incumbent president. There is considerable concern that four more years of a Trump administration pose a graver threat to our democracy than four more years of political dysfunction.”
The fact that Schultz himself — who has expressed grave concern about the far-left shift of the Democratic Party — decided to step aside so as to not risk helping Trump, also says something. In his telling, he was worried about fighting to get his name on the ballot before knowing the outcome of the Democratic primary. He wrote, “There is a risk that my name would appear on ballots even if a moderate Democrat wins the nomination, and that is not a risk I am willing to take.”
In 2016, Trump won because he edged out Hillary Clinton in three states (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan) by less than a point. Effectively, 80,000 additional votes in those states would have swung the election to Clinton. There are undoubtedly enough votes out there for a Democrat to win, as long as the opposition to Trump stays unified.
The lack of demand for a third-party anti-Trump challenger is a good sign for Democrats.
