The race for NBA MVP has been a toss-up between two players all season, Houston Rockets point guard James Harden and Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. And the winner may determine the future of the league.
The NBA has always been a dynamic and evolving league, unafraid of sweeping structural reforms. It added a 3-point line in 1979. It tracks referees’ mistakes and publishes them. And most recently, NBA Commissioner Adam Silver and his team changed the lottery process for the draft to keep teams from tanking.
Yet some proposed reforms to the game have been too grand. Following an era highlighted by Shaquille O’Neal and Dwight Howard’s rim-shattering slam dunks, many proposed raising the rim from 10 feet to 11 to keep dunks from becoming commonplace in a game where players continue to get taller and bouncier. Despite Howard proving it could work for him by dunking on a 12-foot rim during the 2009 Slam Dunk Contest, the rim raise didn’t take.
But a 4-point line could be the next step.
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And, unlike the 11-foot rim, it’s been tested.
The Harlem Globetrotters moved to a longer line since 2017, after using 4-point zones since 2010. Ice Cube’s BIG3 basketball league, composed of retired players who can still play, uses small purple circles at the far reaches of half court to denote 4-point zones. These leagues are about keeping the game exciting for spectators, not showcasing athletic brilliance.
If the NBA starts struggling with attendance, the addition of a longer line would surely boost ticket sales.
The NBA’s first dalliance with a 30-foot line — regular 3-pointers are 23 feet, 9 inches from the rim — came during the 2019 All-Star Celebrity Game when former NBA All-Star Ray Allen, Atlanta rapper Quavo, and other players combined for 10 4-pointers in the course of the game.
Imagine what players in their primes could do with that opportunity. Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young would launch shots with reckless abandon. Portland Trail Blazers guard Damian Lillard would silence audiences with a game-winning heave.
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In the dying moments of a game, the losing team would always have a chance. Just a few shots could give them back the lead. And now that nearly every player is cultivating Golden State point guard Stephen Curry-esque range, the possibilities are tantalizing.
Even for the league’s lumbering giants, 3-point shooting is no longer an anomalous skill, it’s now a requirement.
The NBA doesn’t value back-to-the-basket juggernauts anymore. Giannis’ teammate, the 7-foot Brook Lopez, is a prime example of this change. For the first seven years of his career, Lopez didn’t dare heave up even the most open 3-point shot. Now, “Splash Mountain,” as his teammates refer to him, is a sharpshooter, averaging more than six 3-point attempts per game and converting a respectable number.
A few players, such as Curry and Harden, are so accurate it is more efficient for them to score all their points behind the arc.
But then there’s Antetokounmpo, who has fewer 3-pointers in his career (220) than Harden had just this season (a record 378), and who has been just as dominant.
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The “Greek Freak,” as Antetokounmpo is known, actually made the absurdly countercultural decision to stop shooting 3-pointers this season entirely. He doesn’t even average one attempt per game.
Instead, he gallops like a deer in transition for demoralizing slam dunks, unleashes his graceful spin move for layups, or backs down opposing centers like a big man from the 1980s.
The comparisons between Shaquille O’Neal and Giannis during their age-24 season are intriguing. Despite O’Neal’s huge weight advantage (over 330 pounds to Giannis’ 240) and height advantage (7 feet, 1 inch to Giannis’ 6 feet, 11 inches), their stats are comparable.
When he was 24, O’Neal averaged 26.9 points and 12.4 rebounds per game. At the same age year, Antetokounmpo has averaged 27.4 points and 12.5 rebounds per game.
The fact is that while Harden’s unique style of play makes him the prototypical star of today’s NBA, proven by this season’s record streak of scoring more than 30 points per game, Giannis would dominate in any era.
The MVP voters will decide whether the prototype or the standby is the future of the NBA.
But if they choose the prototype and his 3-point mastery, that may foreshadow larger changes to come.
Mark Naida is opinion editor at the Detroit News.
