IOWA, ONE WEEK OUT. The first votes to be cast in the strangest presidential nomination in anyone’s memory will be cast one week from tonight in the Iowa caucuses. The polls say former President Donald Trump will run away with it, and they’re probably right. In the current RealClearPolitics average of polls, Trump has a 32.7-point lead over Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL) and a 35.2-point lead over Nikki Haley. No one else really matters. Trump has a 45.4-point lead over Vivek Ramaswamy and a 47.6-point lead over Chris Christie. And remember Asa Hutchinson? He’s still in the race, 50.6 percentage points behind Trump.

One caution: The polls are old. The most recent polls in the RealClearPolitics average are all pre-holiday surveys, making them now three weeks old. If there has been any shift among, say DeSantis and Haley, in the last three weeks, we don’t know it yet. Look for a bunch of new polls, including the high-profile Des Moines Register poll, to come out between now and Jan. 14.