Twitter bots, either controlled or amplified by the Russian intelligence services, are going into overdrive to spread messages of fear and anger over the civil strife in Wisconsin, Oregon, and elsewhere. It appears that, in the escalating street violence and civil-society tensions, Russia has found the centerpiece of its 2020 election interference campaign.
Consider events of the past two weeks. We’ve seen what happened when rioters and an armed white teenager met in Wisconsin — two people are dead, and the teenager will go on trial for murder. We’ve seen police officers shoot and paralyze a black man who was resisting arrest. We’ve seen vitriolic exchanges between President Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden, each blaming the other for the rising chaos. All of this sits within a broader polarization over policing, race relations, and national identity, fitting also within the societal, economic, and psychological pressures of the coronavirus pandemic.
It’s a foundation for interference that Russian President Vladimir Putin could only dream of.
That matters because Putin faces a complicated challenge in the November elections. While the United States intelligence community currently assesses that Putin wants Trump to win reelection, Moscow’s calculus is probably uncertain. Regardless of Trump’s affectionate words for Putin, the Trump administration has been far tougher on Russian interests than the Obama administration had been before him. Had the Democratic Party not taken a harsher approach to Moscow over Hillary Clinton’s 2016 election defeat, which some wrongly assert would never have occurred without Russia’s interference, Putin would likely be striving for a Biden-Harris victory.
Putin’s doubt over whether Trump or Biden would be better for his interests will motivate him to focus on his defining strategic ambition — the undermining of U.S. civil society and institutions. Putin does not seek, as some presume, a detente in which the U.S. and Russia agree to respect each other’s spheres of influence. Putin views the U.S. as Russia’s defining adversary, which must be forced into retreat and deferential humility if Russia is to thrive. But Putin is also no idiot. He recognizes that America’s core strength today is the same that allowed it to defeat the Soviet Union 30 years ago — its unique combination of patriotism, democratic institutions, and free markets.
Putin’s ability to fray American faith in its economy is limited. People enjoy a high level of wealth, and they like it. But the Russian leader can target the other two ingredients of American power, and what’s happening in the U.S. right now provides an ideal means.
No, what people are seeing on their streets is not a function of Russian provocation. It is a symptom of our national malady. Some people view the police officers who shot Jacob Blake as terrorists. Others view them as dedicated public servants forced into a split second, life-or-death decision. Some people want the police abolished or defunded while others want more police officers and more support for them. Some people view Kyle Rittenhouse, the teenager now facing charges of murder, as someone merely defending himself against violent rioters. Others view him as an heir to the Ku Klux Klan who went out to hunt protesters. Some people view Trump as the means to restore order and Biden as a backdoor to more chaos. Others view Trump as fuel to the chaos and Biden as the path to restored unity.
More skilled elements of the Russian intelligence services can and will exploit these dichotomies of opinion. They will use bots to spread a blend of sensationalized truth and outright fiction. They will amplify those people who match anger to zero-sum solutions. Depending on the eyes and ears they are targeting, they will simultaneously make heroes and villains of Blake, Rittenhouse, Biden, and Trump. And as in 2016, Russia’s intent will not be one candidate’s election. It will be to undermine what makes America so powerful: its patriotism, unity, and stability.
